Quantification and driving force analysis of provincial-level carbon emissions in China
Quantification and driving force analysis of provincial-level carbon emissions in China
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中国省级碳排放量化及驱动力分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.04.063
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发表时间：
2017-07
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Jie Tang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bin Ye;Jingjing Jiang;Changsheng Li;Lixin Miao;Jie Tang
准确了解中国在省级层面的碳排放真实情况，不仅对实现中国的碳减排至关重要，对在全球范围内应对气候变化也具有重要意义。本文利用细分到每种燃料类型和行业排放系数的详细能源消耗数据，计算了中国所在省份与能源相关的直接和间接二氧化碳排放量，并提出了有针对性的省际减排政策建议。结果显示，基于生产的核算方法和基于消费的核算方法在计算省级二氧化碳排放量方面存在很大差异。考虑到能源二次配置所体现的跨省区二氧化碳排放量转移较大，基于消费的核算更能反映中国各省碳排放的实际特征和责任。从消费角度看，1996年至2013年期间，山东、河北、江苏、内蒙古、广东、河南、辽宁和山西贡献了中国碳排放增长的大部分，而新疆、四川、安徽、天津和湖南发挥着越来越重要的作用。这两组省份应被视为全国减排的重点区域。与此同时，在大多数省份，能源行业是二氧化碳排放增长的最大部门贡献者，而服务业和家庭部门对推高各省排放量的影响越来越大。连同能源部门正在进行的努力，服务业和家庭部门的二氧化碳减排应得到更多关注，特别是在交通运输和城市家庭部门。此外，各省碳排放的时间趋势及其影响因素和部门驱动力也存在很大差异。因此，各省要根据自身情况制定减排政策，瞄准现阶段或近期碳排放的关键驱动因素和领域。
Accurately understanding the real situation of China’s carbon emissions at the provincial level is not only crucial for realizing carbon mitigation in China, but also of great importance for tackling climate change on a global scale. This paper uses detailed energy consumption data subdivided within each fuel type and sector-specific emission factors, to calculate both direct and indirect energy-related CO2emissions for China’s provinces, and offers provincially-targeted policy proposals on emission reductions. The results uncover large divergences in calculation of provincial CO2emissions between production-based and consumption-based accounting approaches. Considering the large amount of interprovincial CO2emission transfers embodied in secondary energy deployment, the consumption-based accounting performs better in reflecting the actual features and responsibilities of carbon emissions in the provinces of China. From the consumption perspective, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Henan, Liaoning and Shanxi contributed to the majority of China’s carbon emission growth during the period of 1996–2013, while Xinjiang, Sichuan, Anhui, Tianjin and Hunan were playing an increasingly important role. These two groups of provinces should be regarded as the key regions for national emissions abatement. Meanwhile, the energy industry was the top sectoral contributor to CO2emissions growth in most provinces, while service and household sectors made increasingly significant impacts on driving up provincial emissions. Together with ongoing efforts in the energy sector, the mitigation of CO2emissions in service and household sectors deserves much more attention, especially in the transportation and urban household sectors. Furthermore, the temporal trends of carbon emissions in various provinces, as well as their factor and sectoral driving forces, varied greatly with each other. Therefore, each of the provinces should formulate emission reduction policies according to their own situation, and target the key driving factors and sectors of carbon emissions at the current stage or in the near future.
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