Current status and future choices of regional sectors-energy-related CO2 emissions: The third economic growth pole of China
Current status and future choices of regional sectors-energy-related CO2 emissions: The third economic growth pole of China
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区域部门能源相关二氧化碳排放现状与未来选择：中国第三经济增长极
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.09.010
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发表时间：
2015-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Lu, Zhaohua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tan, Feifei;Lu, Zhaohua
了解区域部门与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量不断增长的当前演变及其背后的驱动因素，对于制定全球气候政策至关重要，并为新兴经济体未来如何实现低排放目标提供洞见。本文提出了行业能源相关co2排放的估算和解释模型，并提出了一种新的情景设计，所有这些模型都最初应用于中国经济第三增长极（即环渤海地区）2002-2011年的co2排放。因此，我们可以跟踪其中的演变和累积变化，确定二氧化碳排放变化的关键驱动因素，并进行情景分析和预测。估算结果表明，在区域和省尺度上，co2排放量都保持上升趋势。从整体上看，山东在这一时期的排放量绝对值最大，其次是河北、辽宁、天津和北京，各行业的二氧化碳排放量变化呈波动趋势。除了住宅生活行业外，所有行业的累积变化都随着时间的推移而增加。此外，对结果的解释证明，人均GDP和能源强度的变化分别是排放现状最显著的刺激因素和抑制因素。同样，部门结构变化的作用是积极的还是消极的，取决于每个部门在GDP总量中所占份额的增加或减少。此外，无论在何种情景下，环渤海地区各行业的排放量都将显著增加。因此，我们只有在GDP年均增长率和能源消耗均由“十二五”规划确定的情况下，才能在所有行业实现2020年的二氧化碳减排目标。
Understanding the current evolution and drivers behind regional sectors’ growing energy-related CO2emissions is critical for developing global climate policies and providing insights into how our emerging economies can target lower emissions in the future. We propose estimation and explanation models of sectors’ energy-related CO2emissions and present a novel scenario design, all of which are originally applied in the CO2emissions of the third economic growth pole of China (i.e., the Bohai Rim region) during period 2002–2011. We can therefore track the evolution and cumulative change therein, identifying key drivers of CO2emissions change, and performing scenario analysis and projection. The estimation results show that CO2emissions on both regional and provincial scales are maintaining an upward trend. On the whole, Shandong has the largest emissions in absolute terms, followed by Hebei, Liaoning, Tianjin and Beijing during this period, while all sectors’ CO2emissions changes show a fluctuating trend. With the exception of the residential life sector, all sectors’ cumulative changes have increased over time. In addition, the explanation of the results prove that changes in per capita GDP and energy intensity are, respectively, the most significant stimulator and inhibitor for emissions’ current status. Similarly, whether changes in sectoral structure play a positive or negative role depends on the increase or decrease in each sectors’ share in total GDP. Moreover, all sectors’ emissions in the Bohai Rim region will increase significantly regardless of the scenario. We can therefore achieve our 2020 CO2mitigation targets across all sectors only under a scenario whose annual average GDP growth rates and energy consumption are both set by the “12th Five-Year Plan.”
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影响因子：
6.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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