Influence of below-threshold rainfall on landslide occurrence based on Japanese cases
Influence of below-threshold rainfall on landslide occurrence based on Japanese cases
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阈值以下降雨对滑坡发生的影响——基于日本实例
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-022-05639-7
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaihara;S.;Tadakuma;N.;Saito;H.;Nakaya;H.
滑坡预警系统利用临界降雨事件来预测滑坡的发生和严重程度。在本研究中，历史上的临界降雨事件触发山体滑坡在日本进行了分析。我们主要考虑了在日本发生滑坡的现有1 km网格内的超/非超降雨量（此处称为临界降雨量）。此外，这项研究可以为LEWS的运行性能提供信息。为此，我们使用了从日本库存检索的历史滑坡记录，基于雷达的降雨量数据（1公里网格分辨率），以及在过去17年中收集的临界降雨量数据。降雨量低于和超过临界降雨量的降雨事件数量几乎相等。一系列降雨事件可能导致滑坡的概率约为1.15%时，超过临界降雨量和0.09%时，没有超过临界降雨量，相差约10倍。研究还发现，即使没有超过临界降雨量，在泥石流和边坡破坏的情况下，超过临界降雨量的降雨量也发生在一两天前。在滑坡的情况下，降雨量在一周或两周前超过临界降雨量，如果在随后的降雨事件中超过临界降雨量，就可能发生滑坡。此外，日本LEWS的业务评估显示，召回值为0.486的发生预测的准确性，这是有关的事实，几乎一半的降雨事件表现出降雨量不超过参考降雨量水平。未发生预报准确率达到0.935，受未发生特大暴雨事件的真负值影响较大，占绝大部分。
Critical rainfall events are used in landslide early warning systems to predict the occurrence and severity of landslides. In the present study, historical critical rainfall events triggering landslides in Japan were analyzed. We mainly considered the amount of exceeding/nonexceeding rainfall (referred to as critical rainfall here) within an existing 1-km grid covering Japan where landslides occurred. Furthermore, this study could inform the LEWS operational performance. For this purpose, we used historical landslide records retrieved from a Japanese inventory, radar-based rainfall data (1-km grid resolution), and critical rainfall data collected over the past 17 years. Nearly equal numbers of rainfall events were identified with rainfall below and exceeding the critical rainfall level. The probability that a series of rainfall events could cause a landslide was approximately 1.15% when the critical rainfall level was exceeded and 0.09% when the critical rainfall level was not exceeded, with a difference of approximately 10 times. It was also found that even if critical rainfall was not exceeded, in the case of debris flows and slope failures, rainfall exceeding the critical rainfall level occurred one or two days before. In the case of landslides, there occurred rainfall exceeding the critical rainfall level one or two weeks before, and if critical rainfall was exceeded during a subsequent rainfall event, a landslide could occur. In addition, operational evaluation of the Japanese LEWS revealed a recall value of 0.486 in regard to the occurrence prediction accuracy, which was related to the fact that almost half of the rainfall events exhibited rainfall not exceeding the reference rainfall level. The nonoccurrence prediction accuracy reached 0.935, which was greatly influenced by true negative data of nonexceeding rainfall events, accounting for most of the data.
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影响因子：
5.8
作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi
通讯作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi
利用卫星为印度尼西亚降雨引起的山体滑坡建立实验性预警系统原型
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Zonghu Liao;Yang Hong;Jun Wang;Hiroshi Fukuoka;Kyoji
通讯作者：
Kyoji
加利福尼亚州旧金山湾区泥石流实时预警系统的运行
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Raymond C. Wilson;R. Mark;Gary Barbato
通讯作者：
Gary Barbato
基于RBF网络的强降雨期间边坡非线性临界线确定方法研究
DOI：
10.2208/jscej.2001.672_117
发表时间：
2001
期刊：
Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. Kuramoto;Hiromi Tetsuga;N. Higashi;M. Arakawa;H. Nakayama;K. Furukawa
通讯作者：
K. Furukawa