A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
复制标题
青藏高原东北部3500年年降水量树木年轮记录
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1319238111
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发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Bao Yang, et al.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bao Yang, et al.
本文描述了树轮宽度年表的制作和气候解释，该年表是目前青藏高原东北部最长、绝对年代最长的年表，也是世界上最长的年表之一。年表编制方法使人们能够比较长时间尺度和较短时间尺度上降水总量的变化。该区域过去50年的降水量一直处于历史高位--即使考虑到年表和解释的不确定性，也可能比至少3,500年来任何相同长度的时期都要高。值得注意的干旱时期出现在公元前4世纪和15世纪下半叶。利用青藏高原东北部的亚化石、考古和活树刺柏样本，建立了一份跨越4500年的年度分辨和绝对年轮宽度年表。该年表代表了年平均降水量的变化，是公元前1500年以后最可靠的。这一时期的重建降水量显示出更潮湿的趋势：最近10年、25年和50年似乎都是至少三千年来最潮湿的时期。值得注意的历史干旱时期发生在公元前4世纪和15世纪下半叶。重建的最干旱的一年(自公元前1500年以来)是公元前1048年，而最潮湿的是2010年。这一区域的降水变率似乎与近千年来亚洲季风强度的推断变化无关。年表显示了过去两千年重建的北半球平均气温的数十年和更长期的变异性的统计关联。这表明，任何进一步的大规模变暖都可能与该地区更多的水分供应有关。
Significance This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high—likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, even when considering the chronology and interpretational uncertainty. Notable dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.
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近1860年中国北方半湿润地区百年至十年尺度季风降水变化：黄叶洞石笋记录
DOI：
10.1177/0959683610378880
发表时间：
2011-03
期刊：
The Holocene
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
P. Sheppard;P. Tarasov;L. Graumlich;L. Graumlich;K. Heussner;Mayke Wagner;H. Österle;L. Thompson
DOI：
10.1177/0959683610371997
发表时间：
2010-12
期刊：
The Holocene
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Bao Yang;Chun Qin;Kai Huang;Zexin Fan;Jingjing Liu
DOI：
10.1177/0959683611430411
发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
The Holocene
影响因子：
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作者：
Bao Yang;C. Qin;Feng Shi;D. Sonechkin
通讯作者：
Bao Yang;C. Qin;Feng Shi;D. Sonechkin