Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow
复制标题
气候变化和人类活动对三峡水库入库流量的影响
DOI：
10.3390/w9120957
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发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Wang Manlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Yu;Zhong Ping an;Chen Juan;Bing Jianping;Xu Dinghao;Wang Manlin
识别径流变化，量化气候变化和人类活动的影响，对流域水资源规划和管理具有重要意义。利用1951 - 2016年三峡水库入库流量观测资料，运用统计学方法，对三峡水库入库流量变化趋势和突变点进行识别。基于同期的气象资料、土壤类型资料和土地利用资料，建立了SWAT模型，将三峡水库入库径流变化分别定量归因于气候变化和人类活动，并讨论了两阶段法的差异。多阶段法，将研究时段划分为多个阶段，以反映土地利用/覆盖的时空变化。结果显示：（1）研究期间，三峡入库流量显著减少，减少率为7.7 km 3/10 a，年总降水量减少-13.5 mm/10 a，年平均气温升高0.1 °C/10 a。(2)气候变化和人类活动的贡献率约为7：3。气候变化是三峡水库入库流量减少的主要原因。(3)多阶段法中各阶段的计算结果与两阶段法的计算结果不同。多阶段法的累积结果与两阶段法的累积结果一致。各阶段的结果都有一定的变化，与累积结果不同。
Identifying changes in runoff and quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities are of great significance for water resources planning and management in a river basin. In this study, an inflow series of the Three Gorges Reservoir observed from 1951 to 2016 is used to identify the trend and abrupt change point by using statistical methods. Based on the meteorological data, soil type data, and land use data during the same period, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established to quantitatively attribute changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow to climate change and human activities separately and discuss the differences between the two-stage method, which divides the whole study period into two stages to analyze the reasons for runoff evolution, and multi-stage method, which divides the whole study period into more stages to consider the temporal and spatial variation of land use/cover (LULC). The results show: (1) During the study period, a significant decrease is detected in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow and the decrease rate is 7.7 km3 per ten years, annual total precipitation decreases by −13.5 mm per ten years, and annual average temperature increases by 0.1 °C per ten years. (2) Contribution of climate change and human activities is around 7:3. Climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow. (3) Results of stages in multi-stage method are different from the result of two-stage method. Accumulative results of multi-stage method and result of two-stage method are consistent. There are some changes in results of every stage, which are different from the accumulative results.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
M. Bari;K. Smettem;M. Sivapalan
通讯作者：
M. Bari;K. Smettem;M. Sivapalan
三峡水库入库流量变化识别及驱动因素量化
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Zhang Yu;Zhong Ping an;Wang Manlin;Xu Bin;Chen Juan
通讯作者：
Chen Juan
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-013-0760-8
发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Sidong Zeng;J. Xia;Hong Du
通讯作者：
Sidong Zeng;J. Xia;Hong Du
东北惠发河流域气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的SWAT评估
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Aijing Zhang;Chi Zhang;Guobin Fu;Bende Wang;Zhenxin Bao;Hongxing Zheng
通讯作者：
Hongxing Zheng
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
T. Sharma
通讯作者：
T. Sharma