Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain.
Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0
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发表时间：
2023-10-30
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Auffret, Alistair G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Suggitt, Andrew J.;Wheatley, Christopher J.;Aucott, Paula;Beale, Colin M.;Fox, Richard;Hill, Jane K.;Isaac, Nick J. B.;Martay, Blaise;Southall, Humphrey;Thomas, Chris D.;Walker, Kevin J.;Auffret, Alistair G.
虽然已知温度升高会加强从地方到景观尺度的生境破坏的影响，但其叠加或相互作用影响的证据有限，特别是在较大的空间范围和较长的时间尺度上。为了解决这些不足，我们创建了一个75年来土地利用变化的数据集，记录了英国一半以上（>3000平方公里）的半天然草地的损失。将该数据集与气候变化数据配对，我们测试了与鸟类，蝴蝶，大型蛾和植物（n = 1192种）分布变化的关系。我们发现，气候变暖和土地转换的个体或加性效应无疑增加了40%的物种的持久性概率，并降低了12%，这些影响反映在范围收缩和扩张。交互作用相对较少，在不到五分之一的物种中检测到，它们对灭绝风险的总体影响往往很弱。这种个人主义的反应强调了在针对生物多样性和气候适应的政策中包括物种层面信息的重要性。气候变化和土地利用变化可能对物种分布产生独立或交互的影响。在这里，作者表明，英国鸟类，鳞翅目和植物范围的变化往往是由土地转换和温度变化的个体或累加效应解释的。
Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation. Climate change and land use change may have independent or interactive effects on species’ distributions. Here, the authors show that changes in bird, lepidopteran and plant ranges across Great Britain are often explained by individual or additive effects of land conversion and temperature change.
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