Impact Assessment of an Independent Agency for Animal Health in England
Impact Assessment of an Independent Agency for Animal Health in England
复制标题
英国动物健康独立机构的影响评估
DOI：
10.1080/10807039.2012.708248
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gormley A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gormley A
探讨了随机模型的适用性，以评估英国一个新的独立动物卫生机构在动物疾病暴发成本方面的影响。这个新机构被提议负责英格兰的动物疾病管理。随机模型估计了拟议的新机构将面临大小不一的动物疾病爆发的可能性；以及在其运作的前30年里，每种规模爆发了多少次。虽然蓝舌病、口蹄疫和禽流感也有影响，但新机构的潜在总费用差异很大，原因是可能爆发一种未知的重大疾病。研究结果表明，如果这个新机构能将疾病成本降低0.5%，每年就能给社会带来约2100万英镑的收益。随机方法提供了一种方法来处理关于拟议的新机构的任何持续审议中的不确定性，导致每年可能获得7300万英镑的收益，每年损失1.44亿英镑。
The applicability of a stochastic model was explored to assess the impact of a new independent agency for animal health in England in terms of the cost of animal disease outbreaks. The new agency was proposed to take responsibility for animal disease management in England. The stochastic model estimates the likelihood that the proposed new agency would face animal disease outbreaks of major and minor magnitude; and how many outbreaks of each magnitude, within its first 30 years of operation. Large variability in the potential total cost of the new agency was attributable to the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown major disease, although Bluetongue, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Avian Influenza were also influential. The results show that if the new agency reduces disease costs by even 0.5%, this could benefit society by an estimated £21 million per year. The stochastic approach offers a method for dealing with uncertainties in any continuing deliberations regarding the proposed new agency, resulting in a potential annual gain of £73 million ranging to an annual loss of £144 million.
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