Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER): modeling population responses to habitat condition

Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER): modeling population responses to habitat condition
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动态栖息地干扰和生态恢复力(DyHDER):模拟种群对栖息地条件的反应

DOI:
10.1002/ecs2.3023
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发表时间:
2020
期刊:
影响因子:
2.7
通讯作者:
Budy, Phaedra
Budy, Phaedra
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Murphy, Brendan P.;Walsworth, Timothy E.;Belmont, Patrick;Conner, Mary M.;Budy, Phaedra

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了解种群如何应对空间异质栖息地干扰对于保护来说至关重要,同时也具有挑战性。在这里,我们提出了一种新的、免费的开源混合种群模型:动态栖息地干扰和生态恢复力(DyHDER),它将亚种群栖息地条件和连通性纳入种群生存力分析框架。通过使用栖息地时间序列数据和调整亚种群生命率的机械方法,可以对不同程度和持续时间的时间动态和空间明确的栖息地干扰进行建模。此外,DyHDER 使用由特定地点栖息地适宜性、密度依赖性和方向依赖性连通性驱动的概率扩散模型。在 DyHDER 的首次应用中,我们探讨了如何预测碎片化和预计的气候变化对洛根河(美国犹他州)经过充分研究的邦纳维尔鳟鱼集合种群的影响。 DyHDER 模型可以预测哪些亚群最容易受到干扰,以及压力源之间的潜在相互作用。此外,该模型还预测了扰动后种群将如何重新分布。这些信息对于保护主义者和管理人员来说非常有价值,他们需要在经历不断变化的干扰制度的景观中保护受保护关注的人群。 DyHDER 模型提供了一个有价值且可推广的新工具,用于探索不同类群和生态系统的集合种群对时空动态压力源的恢复能力。
Understanding how populations respond to spatially heterogeneous habitat disturbance is as critical to conservation as it is challenging. Here, we present a new, free, and open‐source metapopulation model: Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER), which incorporates subpopulation habitat condition and connectivity into a population viability analysis framework. Modeling temporally dynamic and spatially explicit habitat disturbance of varying magnitude and duration is accomplished through the use of habitat time‐series data and a mechanistic approach to adjusting subpopulation vital rates. Additionally, DyHDER uses a probabilistic dispersal model driven by site‐specific habitat suitability, density dependence, and directionally dependent connectivity. In the first application of DyHDER, we explore how fragmentation and projected climate change are predicted to impact a well‐studied Bonneville cutthroat trout metapopulation in the Logan River (Utah, USA). The DyHDER model predicts which subpopulations are most susceptible to disturbance, as well as the potential interactions between stressors. Further, the model predicts how populations may be expected to redistribute following disturbance. This information is valuable to conservationists and managers faced with protecting populations of conservation concern across landscapes undergoing changing disturbance regimes. The DyHDER model provides a valuable and generalizable new tool to explore metapopulation resilience to spatially and temporally dynamic stressors for a diverse range of taxa and ecosystems.
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