Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure.
Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2013.08.001
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发表时间：
2013-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ali, Sheikh Taslim;Kadi, A. S.;Ferguson, Neil M.
关闭学校等社交距离措施的作用是大流行缓解规划中一个有争议的方面。然而，2009年流感大流行的时间为评估假期学校关闭对流感传播的影响提供了一个自然的实验。通过估计随时间变化的繁殖数（Rt）并将印度不同地区Rt估计值的时间变化与学校假期时间相关联，量化印度甲型H1N1流感pdm'09的传播强度。我们使用了印度2009年（2009年5月17日至2010年5月17日）实验室确诊的甲型H1N1流感pdm每日病例报告，按地区分层。我们从这些时间序列中估计了不同地区的流行病传播率，使用贝叶斯方法应用于疾病传播的分支过程模型，并将所得估计与每个地区的学校假期时间相关联。西北地区经历了两次显著的浪潮，第一波的高峰与为期4周的学校假期（2009年9月至10月）的开始相吻合。在南部地区，这两波疫情没有那么明显，尽管第一波疫情的第一个高峰期与学校假期的开始相吻合--尽管持续时间不到2周（2009年8月）。我们的分析表明，学校假期对2009年印度大流行的流行病学有重大影响。我们估计，学校假期减少了14%-27%，在印度的不同地区的繁殖数量，相对于假期以外的水平。获得的繁殖数估计值（R峰值低于1.5）与世界其他地区报告的结果一致。这项工作加强了过去的研究，表明学校假期对2009年大流行病毒的传播有重大影响，并推断儿童接触模式对传播的作用。
The role of social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic mitigation planning. However, the timing of 2009 pandemic provides a natural experiment for evaluating the impact of school closure during holidays on influenza transmission. To quantify the transmission intensity of the influenza A (H1N1) pdm’09 in India, by estimating the time varying reproduction number (Rt) and correlating the temporal changes in the estimates of Rt for different regions of India with the timing of school holidays. We used daily lab-confirmed case reports of influenza A (H1N1) pdm’09 in India (during 17 May’09 to 17 May’10), stratified by regions. We estimated the transmissibility of the pandemic for different regions from these time-series, using Bayesian methods applied to a branching process model of disease spread and correlated the resulting estimates with the timing of school holidays in each region. The North-west region experienced two notable waves, with the peak of the first wave coinciding with the start of a 4 week school holiday (September-October’09). In the southern region the two waves were less clear cut, though again the first peak of the first wave coincided with the start of school holidays – albeit of less than 2 weeks duration (August’09). Our analysis suggests that the school holidays had a significant influence on the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic in India. We estimate that school holidays reduced the reproduction number by 14%–27% in different regions of India, relative to levels seen outside holiday periods. The estimates of the reproduction number obtained (with peak R values below 1.5) are compatible with those reported from other regions of the world. This work reinforces past studies showing the significant impact of school holidays on spread of 2009 pandemic virus, and by inference the role of contact patterns in children on transmission.
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa0905498
发表时间：
2009-12-31
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cauchemez S;Donnelly CA;Reed C;Ghani AC;Fraser C;Kent CK;Finelli L;Ferguson NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson NM
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Eames KT;Tilston NL;Brooks-Pollock E;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
影响因子：
5
作者：
Wallinga, J;Teunis, P
通讯作者：
Teunis, P
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Wu JT;Cowling BJ;Lau EH;Ip DK;Ho LM;Tsang T;Chuang SK;Leung PY;Lo SV;Liu SH;Riley S
通讯作者：
Riley S
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Sadique MZ;Adams EJ;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ