Monitoring and simulating landscape changes: how do long-term changes in land use and long-term average climate affect regional biophysical conditions in southern Malawi?

Monitoring and simulating landscape changes: how do long-term changes in land use and long-term average climate affect regional biophysical conditions in southern Malawi?
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DOI:
10.1007/s10661-023-11783-9
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发表时间:
2023-09-26
影响因子:
3
通讯作者:
--
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学4区
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我们着手揭示土地利用和长期平均气候的长期变化对马拉维南部区域生物物理环境的影响。对1990年至2020年Landsat 5和8号卫星图像进行了面向对象的监督图像分类,以使用支持向量机分类器确定和量化过去和现在的土地利用-土地覆盖变化。随后,使用2000年和2010年的土地利用-土地覆被的人工神经网络,土地利用-土地覆被为2020年驱动海拔,坡度,降水和温度,人口密度,贫困,距离主要道路,距离村庄数据进行了模拟。在1990年至2020年期间,土地覆盖面积在建筑物(209%),裸露土地(10%)和农田(10%)中增加,森林(30%),草本(4%),灌木丛(20%)和水域(20%)减少。总体而言,调查结果显示,马拉维南部主要是一个农业马赛克景观的城市和农业扩张和气候的综合影响。研究结果还表明,需要加强机器学习算法,以提高景观建模能力,并最终预防、准备和应对环境风险。在线版本包含补充材料,可通过10.1007/s10661-023-11783-9获得。
We set out to reveal the effects of long-term changes in land use and long-term average climate on the regional biophysical environment in southern Malawi. Object-oriented supervised image classification was performed on Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images from 1990 to 2020 to identify and quantify past and present land use-land cover changes using a support vector machine classifier. Subsequently, using 2000 and 2010 land use-land cover in an artificial neural network, land use-land cover for 2020 driven by elevation, slope, precipitation and temperature, population density, poverty, distance to major roads, and distance to villages data was simulated. Between 1990 and 2020, area of land cover increased in built-up (209%), bare land (10%), and cropland (10%) and decreased in forest (30%), herbaceous (4%), shrubland (20%), and water area (20%). Overall, the findings reveal that southern Malawi is dominantly an agro-mosaic landscape shaped by the combined effects of urban and agricultural expansions and climate. The findings also suggest the need to enhance the machine learning algorithms to improve capacity for landscape modelling and, ultimately, prevention, preparedness, and response to environmental risks. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10661-023-11783-9.
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