The international limits and population at risk of Plasmodium vivax transmission in 2009.
The international limits and population at risk of Plasmodium vivax transmission in 2009.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000774
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发表时间：
2010-08-03
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guerra CA;Howes RE;Patil AP;Gething PW;Van Boeckel TP;Temperley WH;Kabaria CW;Tatem AJ;Manh BH;Elyazar IR;Baird JK;Snow RW;Hay SI
间日疟的一个研究重点是提高我们对间日疟风险的空间分布及其与人群间日疟负担的关系的理解。本文概述的研究目的是提供全球间日疟空间范围的当代循证地图，以及对2009年任何传播水平的处于危险状态的人类人口的估计。所有疟疾流行国家可获得的最新间日疟病例报告数据被用来将风险分为三类：无疟疾、不稳定(每年每千人0.1例)。稳定(每1,000例/1,000例≥)间日疟原虫的传播。根据其与寄生虫和媒介生物学的关系，使用温度和干旱数据进一步限制了风险区域。医学情报被用来改进报告没有传播的特定地区(例如大城市地区和无疟疾岛屿)的风险空间范围。然后，通过将分类风险图与调整到2009年的高分辨率人口表面相结合，得出每个传播水平下的PAR。通过对这一遗传特征的基因频率的独立建模，实现了将非洲大量Duffy阴性群体排除在PAR总数之外。据估计，2009年有28.5亿人面临间日疟原虫传播的一定风险，其中57.1%的人生活在传播不稳定的地区。绝大多数(25.9亿，91.0%)位于中亚和东南亚(CSE)亚洲，其余位于美洲(1.6亿，5.5%)和非洲+地区(1.1亿，3.5%)。尽管有证据表明间日疟原虫感染在非洲无处不在的风险，但达菲阴性反应在整个中非和西非的高度流行大大降低了PAR估计。经过一个多世纪的发展和控制，间日疟原虫仍然比恶性疟原虫分布得更广泛，是28.5亿面临感染风险的人发病和死亡的潜在原因，其中大多数人位于CSE亚洲热带地区。达菲阴性特征的频率大大降低了非洲各地感染的可能性，但传播确实发生在非洲大陆，这是达菲阳性当地人和旅行者的关切。最终的地图提供了空间限制，可以绘制间日疟原虫传播的地方性地图，以支持未来基于地图的负担估计。越来越多的证据表明，间日疟原虫疟疾在临床上并不像人们通常认为的那样良性。此外，它是人类疟疾中分布最广的物种，在某些地区可能比更广泛研究的恶性疟原虫引起更多的疾病。了解间日疟原虫在哪里传播，并测量生活在感染风险中的人数，是估计全球疾病死亡人数的基本第一步。这篇论文的目的是为这种寄生虫的全球分布绘制一张可靠的地图，并估计有多少人可能受到感染。使用地理信息系统绘制间日疟原虫感染情况的数据地图和阻碍传播的气候条件的空间信息(环境温度低和极端干旱的环境)，以便划定不太可能发生传播的地区。这张地图与人口分布数据相结合，以估计有多少人生活在这些地区，因此面临感染间日疟原虫的风险。结果显示，2009年有28.5亿人暴露在一定程度的传播风险之下。
A research priority for Plasmodium vivax malaria is to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of risk and its relationship with the burden of P. vivax disease in human populations. The aim of the research outlined in this article is to provide a contemporary evidence-based map of the global spatial extent of P. vivax malaria, together with estimates of the human population at risk (PAR) of any level of transmission in 2009. The most recent P. vivax case-reporting data that could be obtained for all malaria endemic countries were used to classify risk into three classes: malaria free, unstable (<0.1 case per 1,000 people per annum (p.a.)) and stable (≥0.1 case per 1,000 p.a.) P. vivax malaria transmission. Risk areas were further constrained using temperature and aridity data based upon their relationship with parasite and vector bionomics. Medical intelligence was used to refine the spatial extent of risk in specific areas where transmission was reported to be absent (e.g., large urban areas and malaria-free islands). The PAR under each level of transmission was then derived by combining the categorical risk map with a high resolution population surface adjusted to 2009. The exclusion of large Duffy negative populations in Africa from the PAR totals was achieved using independent modelling of the gene frequency of this genetic trait. It was estimated that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some risk of P. vivax transmission in 2009, with 57.1% of them living in areas of unstable transmission. The vast majority (2.59 billion, 91.0%) were located in Central and South East (CSE) Asia, whilst the remainder were located in America (0.16 billion, 5.5%) and in the Africa+ region (0.10 billion, 3.5%). Despite evidence of ubiquitous risk of P. vivax infection in Africa, the very high prevalence of Duffy negativity throughout Central and West Africa reduced the PAR estimates substantially. After more than a century of development and control, P. vivax remains more widely distributed than P. falciparum and is a potential cause of morbidity and mortality amongst the 2.85 billion people living at risk of infection, the majority of whom are in the tropical belt of CSE Asia. The probability of infection is reduced massively across Africa by the frequency of the Duffy negative trait, but transmission does occur on the continent and is a concern for Duffy positive locals and travellers. The final map provides the spatial limits on which the endemicity of P. vivax transmission can be mapped to support future cartographic-based burden estimations. Growing evidence shows that Plasmodium vivax malaria is clinically less benign than has been commonly believed. In addition, it is the most widely distributed species of human malaria and is likely to cause more illness in certain regions than the more extensively studied P. falciparum malaria. Understanding where P. vivax transmission exists and measuring the number of people who live at risk of infection is a fundamental first step to estimating the global disease toll. The aim of this paper is to generate a reliable map of the worldwide distribution of this parasite and to provide an estimate of how many people are exposed to probable infection. A geographical information system was used to map data on the presence of P. vivax infection and spatial information on climatic conditions that impede transmission (low ambient temperature and extremely arid environments) in order to delineate areas where transmission was unlikely to take place. This map was combined with population distribution data to estimate how many people live in these areas and are, therefore, exposed to risk of infection by P. vivax malaria. The results show that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some level of risk of transmission in 2009.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Cortes, H;Morillas-M치rquez, F;Valero, A
通讯作者：
Valero, A
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Gautret, P;Legros, F;Jacquemin, JL
通讯作者：
Jacquemin, JL
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2007.77.984
发表时间：
2007-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Barcus, Mazie J.;Basri, Hasan;Baird, J. Kevin
通讯作者：
Baird, J. Kevin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Comellini, L;Tozzola, A;Scaglia, M
通讯作者：
Scaglia, M
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Culleton, Richard;Ndounga, Mathieu;Tanabe, Kazuyuki
通讯作者：
Tanabe, Kazuyuki