Protecting Energy Infrastructure against the Uncertainty of Future Climate Change: A Real Options Approach
Protecting Energy Infrastructure against the Uncertainty of Future Climate Change: A Real Options Approach
复制标题
保护能源基础设施免受未来气候变化的不确定性影响：实物期权方法
DOI：
10.15351/2373-8456.1075
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Plater
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Prime;Karyn Morrissey;Jennifer Brown;A. Plater
气候变化对沿海地区的影响，包括风暴和海平面上升造成的洪水和侵蚀，以及可能的适应反应，已经使用截然不同的方法进行了研究；从非常详细的特定地点、基于过程的调查和干预措施到沿海地区脆弱性的全球宏观经济评估。本文提出了一种防洪实物期权分析方法，该方法重视在大区域局部空间尺度上围绕电力基础设施建设和维护防洪设施时做出的潜在投资决策。实物期权分析涵盖了未来气候条件的不确定性和投资项目管理的灵活性，可以产生比单独使用传统贴现现金流分析更精确的最优结果。该方法使用洪水淹没模型的高级分析来评估目前的能源基础设施洪水成本，直至英国 2100 年可能出现的最高海平面上升（称为 H++ 情景），该情景预计海平面上升 1.8 m。这些成本纳入实物期权估值模型，能够确定哪些能源基础设施将从投资中受益以及何时受益。这项英国西北部的研究确定了目前将受益于防洪投资而不是贴现现金流分析的两个基础设施地点，到 2050 年将增加到 14 个。使用这种方法确定了 46 个地点将受益于现在推迟防洪投资，到 2050 年减少到 35 个地点。这种项目评估方法可以应用于洪泛区内的任何特征，例如基础设施或住宅，使其成为一种适应性强且有用的工具，可以识别需要投资的脆弱特征，以确保它们在未来的极端洪水事件中保持弹性。这项工作是水动力建模、洪水风险评估和经济学之间跨学科合作的结果。其输出非常适合输入决策支持工具，使利益相关者能够询问和传播有关他们感兴趣的空间位置的信息。这篇评论可在《海洋和沿海经济学杂志》上找到：https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol5/iss1/3
The coastal impacts of climate change, including flooding and erosion due to storms and sea-level rise, and the possible adaptation responses have been studied using very different approaches; from very detailed sitespecific, process-based investigations and interventions to global macroeconomic assessments of coastal zone vulnerability. This paper presents a flood defense real option analysis methodology that values potential investment decisions made in the building and maintaining of flood defenses around electricity infrastructure at local spatial scales for a large region. Real option analysis embraces uncertainty in future climate conditions and flexibility in the management of investment projects to produce a more precise optimal outcome than attained with traditional discount cash flow analysis alone. The method uses high-level analysis from flood inundation models to assess the cost of flooding for energy infrastructure at the present-day up to the highest plausible sea-level rise for the UK in 2100 known as the H++ scenario, which projects a sea-level rise of 1.8 m. These costs feed into a real option valuation model able to identify which energy infrastructure will benefit from investment, and when. This northwest UK study identifies two infrastructure sites that, today, would benefit from flood defence investment over discount cash flow analysis, increasing to an additional 14 in 2050. Using this method has identified 46 sites that would benefit from deferring flood defence investment now, reducing to 35 sites in 2050. This method of project valuation can be applied to any feature within the floodplain, e.g. infrastructure or residential housing, making it an adaptable and useful tool in identifying vulnerable features that require investment to ensure they stay resilient to extreme flood events in the future. This work is the result of an inter-disciplinary collaboration between hydrodynamic modelling, flood risk assessment and economics. The outputs of which are ideal to be fed into a decision-support tool, allowing stakeholders to interrogate and disseminate information about the spatial locations they are interested in. This review is available in Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics: https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol5/iss1/3
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Jevrejeva, S.;Grinsted, A.;Moore, J. C.
通讯作者：
Moore, J. C.
使架空线路适应气候变化：动态评级是答案吗？
影响因子：
9
作者：
Cradden L
通讯作者：
Cradden L