Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios
Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios
复制标题
环境波动可以促进高灭绝风险情景中的进化救援
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Holt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
James H. Peniston;M. Barfield;Andrew Gonzalez;R. Holt
重大的环境变化可以迫使一个种群走向灭绝，但在某些条件下，自然选择的适应可以拯救种群并使其持续存在。这一过程被称为进化拯救，被认为不太可能在更大程度的随机环境波动中发生，因为环境变化降低了预期的种群规模，增加了种群规模的差异，增加了进化滞后。然而，先前关于波动环境中进化救援的研究只考虑了可能发生进化救援的情况。我们扩展了这些研究，以评估基线灭绝风险（我们通过改变初始种群规模、环境变化程度或突变率来操纵）如何影响环境变化对环境突变后进化救援的影响。通过分析模型和随机模拟的结合，我们发现自相关的环境变化阻碍了低灭绝风险情景下的进化救援，但促进了高风险情景下的救援。在这些高风险的情况下，连续好年份的机会抵消了环境变化对进化人口统计学的负面影响。这些发现可以为考虑对环境突变的进化反应的有效保护实践的发展提供信息。
Substantial environmental change can force a population onto a path towards extinction, but under some conditions, adaptation by natural selection can rescue the population and allow it to persist. This process, known as evolutionary rescue, is believed to be less likely to occur with greater magnitudes of random environmental fluctuations because environmental variation decreases expected population size, increases variance in population size and increases evolutionary lag. However, previous studies of evolutionary rescue in fluctuating environments have only considered scenarios in which evolutionary rescue was likely to occur. We extend these studies to assess how baseline extinction risk (which we manipulated via changes in the initial population size, degree of environmental change or mutation rate) influences the effects of environmental variation on evolutionary rescue following an abrupt environmental change. Using a combination of analytical models and stochastic simulations, we show that autocorrelated environmental variation hinders evolutionary rescue in low-extinction-risk scenarios but facilitates rescue in high-risk scenarios. In these high-risk cases, the chance of a run of good years counteracts the otherwise negative effects of environmental variation on evolutionary demography. These findings can inform the development of effective conservation practices that consider evolutionary responses to abrupt environmental changes.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Mills, L. Scott;Bragina, Eugenia V.;Fay, Kairsten
通讯作者：
Fay, Kairsten
实现进化救援的最佳投资
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Ashander, Jaime;Thompson, Lisa C.;Sanchirico, James N.;Baskett, Marissa L.
通讯作者：
Baskett, Marissa L.