Optimal investment to enable evolutionary rescue
Optimal investment to enable evolutionary rescue
复制标题
实现进化救援的最佳投资
DOI：
10.1007/s12080-019-0413-8
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Baskett, Marissa L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ashander, Jaime;Thompson, Lisa C.;Sanchirico, James N.;Baskett, Marissa L.
“进化拯救”是进化使种群在不断变化的环境中得以持续存在的潜力。即使最终得到了拯救，进化的时间滞后也会导致种群规模暂时下降到濒临灭绝的阈值以下。为了减少灭绝风险，考虑到人类驱动的全球变化，保护管理可以通过圈养繁殖等行动来增加种群。为了量化的最佳时机，和指标，从事，投资在临时增强，使进化的救援，我们构建了一个模型，耦合人口-遗传动力学给出了一个移动的最佳。我们假设“减速变化”，这可能与气候变化有关，即环境变化的速度最初超过了可能进行进化拯救的速度，但最终会放缓。我们分析了干预的最优控制路径，以避免种群规模下降到易于灭绝的阈值以下，从而使成本最小化。我们发现，最佳的干预路径最初增加的人口下降，然后下降，停止时，人口增长率变为正值，滞后于稳定的环境变化。换句话说，最佳战略是即使在人口减少的情况下也要增加投资，而人口的正增长可以作为结束干预的信号。此外，相对于初始种群规模，更大的承载能力降低了最佳干预。因此，增加承载能力的一次性行动，如栖息地恢复，可以减少对人口增加的长期投资的数量和持续时间，即使人口最初低于新的承载能力并逐渐减少。
“Evolutionary rescue” is the potential for evolution to enable population persistence in a changing environment. Even with eventual rescue, evolutionary time lags can cause the population size to temporarily fall below a threshold susceptible to extinction. To reduce extinction risk given human-driven global change, conservation management can enhance populations through actions such as captive breeding. To quantify the optimal timing of, and indicators for engaging in, investment in temporary enhancement to enable evolutionary rescue, we construct a model of coupled demographic-genetic dynamics given a moving optimum. We assume “decelerating change”, as might be relevant to climate change, where the rate of environmental change initially exceeds a rate where evolutionary rescue is possible, but eventually slows. We analyze the optimal control path of an intervention to avoid the population size falling below a threshold susceptible to extinction, minimizing costs. We find that the optimal path of intervention initially increases as the population declines, then declines and ceases when the population growth rate becomes positive, which lags the stabilization in environmental change. In other words, the optimal strategy involves increasing investment even in the face of a declining population, and positive population growth could serve as a signal to end the intervention. In addition, a greater carrying capacity relative to the initial population size decreases the optimal intervention. Therefore, a one-time action to increase carrying capacity, such as habitat restoration, can reduce the amount and duration of longer term investment in population enhancement, even if the population is initially lower than and declining away from the new carrying capacity.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Ford, MJ
通讯作者：
Ford, MJ
DOI：
10.1086/694121
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
The American naturalist
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chevin LM;Cotto O;Ashander J
通讯作者：
Ashander J
多基因性状强选择的遗传和统计分析：什么，我正常吗？
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
M. Turelli;N. Barton
通讯作者：
N. Barton
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Reed TE;Schindler DE;Hague MJ;Patterson DA;Meir E;Waples RS;Hinch SG
通讯作者：
Hinch SG
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Baskett, Marissa L.;Nisbet, Roger M.;Gaines, Steven D.
通讯作者：
Gaines, Steven D.