Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.
Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104251
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发表时间：
2022-10
期刊：
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Bell, Michelle L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choi, Hayon Michelle;Lee, Whanhee;Roye, Dominic;Heo, Seulkee;Urban, Ales;Entezari, Alireza;Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria;Zanobetti, Antonella;Gasparrini, Antonio;Analitis, Antonis;Tobias, Aurelio;Armstrong, Ben;Forsberg, Bertil;Iniguez, Carmen;Astrom, Christofer;Indermitte, Ene;Lavigne, Eric;Mayvaneh, Fatemeh;Acquaotta, Fiorella;Sera, Francesco;Orru, Hans;Kim, Ho;Kysely, Jan;Madueira, Joana;Schwartz, Joel;Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.;Katsouyanni, Klea;Diaz, Magali Hurtado;Ragettli, Martina S.;Pascal, Mathilde;Ryti, Niilo;Scovronick, Noah;Osorio, Samuel;Tong, Shilu;Seposo, Xerxes;Guo, Yue Leon;Guo, Yuming;Bell, Michelle L.
确定绿色空间如何影响城市环境中的温度-死亡率关系至关重要，特别是考虑到气候变化和快速城市化。然而，绿地对与热有关的死亡率的影响的改变通常集中在局部地区或单个国家。本研究考察了全球不同绿地水平之间的热死亡关系。我们收集了24个国家452个地点的日常环境温度和死亡率数据，并使用增强植被指数（EVI）作为绿地测量。采用分布滞后非线性模型估计各城市的热死亡率关系，并对城市特定平均温度、城市特定温度范围、城市特定人口密度和国内生产总值（GDP）进行汇总调整。通过比较452个地点不同绿地组（低、中、高）的热相关死亡风险，评价绿地改造的效果。在99度温度和最低死亡温度的比较中，绿地价值高的城市热死亡相对风险最低，为1.19 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.25)，而绿地价值低的城市热死亡相对风险为1.46 （95% CI: 1.31, 1.62）。绿色空间增加20%与热相关归因比例减少9.02% （95% CI: 8.88, 9.16）相关，如果这种关联是因果关系（不在本研究评估的范围内），这种减少可在24个国家每年节省约933例额外死亡。我们的研究结果可以让社区了解城市环境中绿色空间的潜在健康益处，以及有关气候变化影响的缓解措施。本刊物是根据《援助协议》编制的。RD83587101由美国环境保护署授予耶鲁大学。它还没有经过环保局的正式审查。本文件所表达的观点仅仅是作者的观点，并不一定反映原子能机构的观点。EPA不认可本出版物中提到的任何产品或商业服务。本出版物中报告的研究还得到了美国国立卫生研究院国家少数民族健康和健康差异研究所的支持，资助编号为R01MD012769。内容完全是作者的责任，并不一定代表美国国立卫生研究院的官方观点。此外，本工作还得到了韩国国家研究基金会（2021R1A6A3A03038675），英国医学研究委员会（MR/V034162/1和MR/R013349/1），英国自然环境研究委员会（资助ID: NE/R009384/1），芬兰科学院（资助ID: 310372），欧盟地平线2020项目枯竭（资助ID: 820655和874990），捷克科学基金会（22-24920S），埃默里大学niehs资助的HERCULES中心(资助ID：P30ES019776)和MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033资助的CEX2018-000794-S。资助者没有参与设计、数据收集、分析、结果解释、论文撰写或发表决定。
Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting. We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations. Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries. Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change. This publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.
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热浪和死亡率：一项多国，多社区研究。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Guo Y;Gasparrini A;Armstrong BG;Tawatsupa B;Tobias A;Lavigne E;Coelho MSZS;Pan X;Kim H;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz JD;Bell ML;Scortichini M;Michelozzi P;Punnasiri K;Li S;Tian L;Garcia SDO;Seposo X;Overcenco A;Zeka A;Goodman P;Dang TN;Dung DV;Mayvaneh F;Saldiva PHN;Williams G;Tong S
通讯作者：
Tong S
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Kuddus, Md Abdul;Tynan, Elizabeth;McBryde, Emma
通讯作者：
McBryde, Emma
影响因子：
25.7
作者：
Crouse, Dan L.;Pinault, Lauren;Villeneuve, Paul J.
通讯作者：
Villeneuve, Paul J.
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1617526114
发表时间：
2017-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Matthews, Tom K. R.;Wilby, Robert L.;Murphy, Conor
通讯作者：
Murphy, Conor