A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin
A hybrid model to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow for an ungauged mountainous basin
复制标题
评估气候变化对未测量山区盆地径流影响的混合模型
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3775-x
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发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Chen Zhongsheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Chong;Xu Jianhua;Chen Yaning;Bai Ling;Chen Zhongsheng
在未测量的山地盆地中定量评估气候变率对河流的影响是一项困难而具有挑战性的工作。本文提出了一种基于地球数据产品的降尺度方法、反向传播人工神经网络（BPANN）和权重连接方法相结合的混合模型，探索了解决这一问题的途径。为验证混合模型的适用性，以阿克苏河的两条源头库马力克河和托什坎河为研究对象，利用该混合模型评估了气候变率对河流流量的影响。结果表明，混合模型具有较好的效果，对两源区的定量评价结果为：(1)1980 - 2012年库马里克流域和托什坎流域降水分别增加48.5和41.0 mm，年平均气温每10 a升高0.1℃；(2)随着气候变暖和变湿，库马力克河和托什干河的流量分别增加了1.5 × 10(8)和3.3 × 10(8) m(3) / a；(3)温度和降水对流域流量的贡献分别为64.01 +/- 7.34、35.99 +/- 7.34和47.72 +/- 8.10、52.26 +/- 8.10%。本研究提出了一种可行的混合模型来评估气候变率对河流流量的影响，该模型可用于西北未测量的山地盆地。
To quantitatively assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow in an ungauged mountainous basin is a difficult and challenging work. In this study, a hybrid model combing downscaling method based on earth data products, back propagation artificial neural networks (BPANN) and weights connection method was developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the hybrid model, the Kumarik River and Toshkan River, two headwaters of the Aksu River, were employed to assess the impact of climate variability on streamflow by using this hybrid model. The conclusion is that the hybrid model presented a good performance, and the quantitative assessment results for the two headwaters are: (1) the precipitation respectively increased by 48.5 and 41.0 mm in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment, and the average annual temperature both increased by 0.1 A degrees C in the two catchments during each decade from 1980 to 2012; (2) with the warming and wetting climate, the streamflow respectively increased 1.5 x 10(8) and 3.3 x 10(8) m(3) per decade in the Kumarik River and the Toshkan River; and (3) the contribution of the temperature and precipitation to the streamflow, which were 64.01 +/- 7.34, 35.99 +/- 7.34 and 47.72 +/- 8.10, 52.26 +/- 8.10%, respectively in the Kumarik catchment and Toshkan catchment. Our study introduced a feasible hybrid model for the assessment of the impact of climate variability on streamflow, which can be used in the ungauged mountainous basin of Northwest China.
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塔里木河流域水资源状况及环境变化下的系统演化分析
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhang, Xiuyu;Zuo, Qiting
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
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Changchun Xu;Yaning Chen;Yimit Hamid;T. Tashpolat;Yapeng Chen;Hongtao Ge;Weihong Li
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Li Hui-min
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Jianhua Xu;Yaning Chen;Weihong Li;Qin Nie;Chunan Song;Chunmeng Wei
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影响因子：
6.4
作者：
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通讯作者：
R. Neupane;J. White;S. Alexander