Analysis of Water Resource Situation of the Tarim River Basin and the System Evolution under the Changing Environment
Analysis of Water Resource Situation of the Tarim River Basin and the System Evolution under the Changing Environment
复制标题
塔里木河流域水资源状况及环境变化下的系统演化分析
DOI：
10.2112/si73-003.1
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zuo, Qiting
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Xiuyu;Zuo, Qiting
张小新、左权，2015年。变化环境下塔里木河流域水资源状况及其系统演化分析。塔里木河流域水资源由降水、冰川融水、积雪等多种水源提供，对气候变化敏感。水资源系统具有极大的不稳定性和脆弱性，演化规律复杂。由于气候变化和人类活动的双重影响，塔里木河流域水资源管理的风险性和不确定性大大增加。根据1962~2007年塔里木河流域三个源头主要出口控制的水文站和流域气象站的水文气象资料，以及2000~2011年的积雪资料，采用线性趋势估计方法，分析了塔里木河流域径流的变化过程及其长期趋势。在此基础上，建立了气象、水文变量的多Copula联合分布模型。基于关联结构的变点检测和尾部关联度的计算结果，分析了不同时期水资源系统的演化驱动力及其关联度的变化。进一步研究演化的时空变化规律，为区域水资源管理提供可靠依据。
ABSTRACT Zhang, X., and Zuo, Q., 2015. Analysis of water resource situation of the tarim river basin and its system evolution under the changing environment. The water resource of the Tarim River Basin is supplied by various water sources such as precipitation, melt water of glacier and snow and it is sensitive to climatic change. The water resource system is greatly unstable and vulnerable, and its evolution law is complicated. Due to the double influence of climate change and human activities, the managerial risk and uncertainty of water resource in the Tarim River Basin are increased severely. Based on hydrological and meteorological materials of hydrological station and watershed weather station controlled in the main exits of three origins in the Tarim River Basin from 1962 to 2007, together with the materials of accumulation of snow from 2000 to 2011, its runoff changing process and its long-term tendency are analyzed by means of the linear tendency estimation method. Then, the multi-COPULA joint distribution model between meteorological and hydrological variables is established. The evolutionary driving force of water resource systems in different periods and its change of dependent measure is analyzed based on change-point detection of dependent structure and the result of the correlative degree in the tail. Temporal and spatial variation of evolution is further investigated to provide a reliable basis for regional management of water resource.
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