Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.
Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2020.0653
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Eslava-Schmalbach JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alexiadis A;Albano A;Rahmat A;Yildiz M;Kefal A;Ozbulut M;Bakirci N;Garzón-Alvarado DA;Duque-Daza CA;Eslava-Schmalbach JH
本研究开发了一个模拟传染病在真实的城市中传播的模型框架。伯明翰（英国）和博戈塔（哥伦比亚）的数字副本被生成，再现了他们的城市环境，基础设施和人口。数字居民具有与真实的人口相同的统计特征。他们的运动是可预测的旅行（上下班，上学等）的组合。和随机漫步（购物、休闲等）。数百万人，他们的遭遇和疾病的传播是通过高性能计算和大规模并行算法模拟的，持续数月，时间分辨率为1分钟。模拟准确地再现了伯明翰和博戈塔在封锁之前和封锁期间的COVID-19数据。该模型只有一个可在大流行早期计算的可调整参数。政策制定者可以将我们的数字城市作为虚拟实验室，用于测试、预测和比较旨在遏制流行病的政策的效果。
This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies of Birmingham (UK) and Bogotá (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure and population. The digital inhabitants have the same statistical features of the real population. Their motion is a combination of predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) and random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions of individuals, their encounters and the spread of the disease are simulated by means of high-performance computing and massively parallel algorithms for several months and a time resolution of 1 minute. Simulations accurately reproduce the COVID-19 data for Birmingham and Bogotá both before and during the lockdown. The model has only one adjustable parameter calculable in the early stages of the pandemic. Policymakers can use our digital cities as virtual laboratories for testing, predicting and comparing the effects of policies aimed at containing epidemics.
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