SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.
SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-30144-7
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发表时间：
2022-05-19
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
已经提出并实施了仅对未接种疫苗的人群进行检测的筛查计划，以减轻SARS-CoV-2的传播，隐含地假设未接种疫苗的人群推动了传播。为了评估这一前提并量化仅未接种疫苗的筛查计划的影响，我们引入了一个SARS-CoV-2传播模型，通过该模型，我们探索了一系列传播率，疫苗有效性情景，既往感染率和筛查计划。我们发现，随着疫苗接种率的提高，未接种疫苗的人群导致的传播比例下降，因此，一旦疫苗覆盖率超过55%（omicron）或80%（delta），大多数社区传播都是由疫苗突破性感染驱动的，随着疫苗有效性的减弱，这些点会降低。因此，我们表明，随着疫苗接种率的提高，与未接种疫苗的仅筛查相关的传播减少下降，确定了对感染和住院的三种不同类别的影响。更广泛地说，这些结果表明，有效的仅未接种疫苗的筛查取决于人群免疫力，疫苗接种率和变异。随着COVID-19疫苗覆盖率的增加，针对未接种疫苗人群的筛查项目检测的个体越来越少。这项建模研究确定了疫苗覆盖率和有效性的情况下，这些计划是（和不是）有影响力。
Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by vaccine-breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), points which shift lower as vaccine effectiveness wanes. Thus, we show that as vaccination rates increase, the transmission reductions associated with unvaccinated-only screening decline, identifying three distinct categories of impact on infections and hospitalizations. More broadly, these results demonstrate that effective unvaccinated-only screening depends on population immunity, vaccination rates, and variant. As COVID-19 vaccine coverage increases, screening programs that focus on the unvaccinated population test fewer individuals. This modeling study identifies vaccine coverage and effectiveness scenarios where such programs are (and are not) impactful.
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00001-9
发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hart WS;Miller E;Andrews NJ;Waight P;Maini PK;Funk S;Thompson RN
通讯作者：
Thompson RN
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2113017
发表时间：
2021-11-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
El Sahly HM;Baden LR;Essink B;Doblecki-Lewis S;Martin JM;Anderson EJ;Campbell TB;Clark J;Jackson LA;Fichtenbaum CJ;Zervos M;Rankin B;Eder F;Feldman G;Kennelly C;Han-Conrad L;Levin M;Neuzil KM;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Polakowski L;Mascola JR;Ledgerwood JE;Graham BS;August A;Clouting H;Deng W;Han S;Leav B;Manzo D;Pajon R;Schödel F;Tomassini JE;Zhou H;Miller J;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Haug, Nils;Geyrhofer, Lukas;Klimek, Peter
通讯作者：
Klimek, Peter
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2112532119
发表时间：
2022-01-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Frazier PI;Cashore JM;Duan N;Henderson SG;Janmohamed A;Liu B;Shmoys DB;Wan J;Zhang Y
通讯作者：
Zhang Y