Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions

Regional cleavages in African politics: Persistent electoral blocs and territorial oppositions
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非洲政治中的地区分裂:持续存在的选举集团和领土对立

DOI:
10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102741
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发表时间:
2022
影响因子:
4.1
通讯作者:
Boone C
Boone C
中科院分区:
法学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Boone C

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社会经济分裂是否影响非洲国家的选举动态?以往对非洲政治的个人层面和政党制度的研究已经不再强调社会经济因素,从而形成了一种普遍的观点,即种族分裂和短期的种族联盟决定了当地和国家的政治。专注于肯尼亚,赞比亚和马拉维,我们利用选举地理学的方法,提供了一个空间分析的地理模式,在选区一级的选举回报超过三十年,揭示了存在的持久tregionalvoting集团,在他们的时间稳定性和多民族的特点,是不是很好地解释了流行的理论。这些异常现象为重新解释这三个国家的国家选举结构和动态打开了大门,这三个国家将持续存在的投票集团的地理聚集作为其病因的线索。我们提出了一个解释,重点是在国家选民的核心-外围分裂,以下Lipset和Rokkan(1967)的经典模型的领土对立的国家正在经历政治和经济一体化和现代化。国土安全部的数据和区域经济活动的代理支持这一解释。在空间不平等和领土政治的比较政治经济学文献中探讨的社会经济分裂类型在非洲选举政治中可能比以前认为的更突出。
Do socio-economic cleavages shape electoral dynamics in African countries? Previous individual-level and party systems research on African politics has de-emphasized socio-economic factors, contributing to the common view that ethnic cleavages and short-term ethnic alliances define politics both locally and nationally. Focusing on Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi, we draw on methods in electoral geography to offer a spatial analysis of geographic patterns in constituency-level electoral returns over three decades that reveals the existence of persistentregionalvoting blocs that, in their temporal stability and multiethnic character, are not well explained by prevailing theory. The anomalies open the door to a reinterpretation national electoral structure and dynamics in the three countries that takes the geographic clustering of the persistent voting blocs as a clue to their etiology. We propose an interpretation that focuses on core-periphery cleavages in national electorates, following Lipset and Rokkan's (1967) classic model of territorial oppositions in countries undergoing political and economic integration and modernization. DHS data and proxies for regional economic activity support this interpretation. Socio-economic cleavages of the type explored in comparative political economy literatures on spatial inequality and territorial politics may be more salient in African electoral politics than previously thought.
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