Local and remote mean and extreme temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions
Local and remote mean and extreme temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions
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当地和远程平均和极端温度对区域气溶胶减排的响应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
L. Horowitz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Westervelt;N. Mascioli;A. Fiore;Andrew J. Conley;J. Lamarque;D. Shindell;G. Faluvegi;M. Previdi;G. Correa;L. Horowitz
抽象的。为保护人类健康而实施的区域气溶胶和前体减排对气候的影响知之甚少。我们
利用三个耦合的化学-气候模式研究平均和极端温度对气溶胶排放的区域变化的响应：NOAA
GFDL CM3、NCAR CESM 1和NASA GISS-E2。我们的方法对比了每个模型的长期现代控制模拟（长达400年，
2000年或2005年的排放），其中有14个单独的气溶胶排放扰动模拟（每个160-240年）。我们扰动了
二氧化硫（SO2）和/或含碳气溶胶在世界六个地区，并评估统计意义的平均和极端
相对于由控制模拟和跨模型确定的内部可变性的温度响应。在所有模型中，
地表温度对SO2和/或含碳气溶胶的响应（扰动减去控制）大多是正的（变暖），
显著，范围从+0.17 K（欧洲SO2）到-0.06 K（美国BC）。对SO2减排的变暖反应
在美国和欧洲的扰动模拟中，无论是全球还是区域，
仅欧洲人为排放的SO2;然而，即使是远离北极地区的排放，如印度的SO2，
使北极温度显著升高了0.5 K北极变暖是每个模型和几种气溶胶排放的最有力的反应
扰动北方中纬度地区的温度响应对该区域内的排放扰动最为敏感。在
然而，在热带地区，温度对排放扰动的响应在量级上与排放扰动大致相同，
无论是在热带地区还是热带地区。我们发现，气候对区域气溶胶扰动的敏感性范围为0.5至1.0 K（W m−2）−1，具体取决于区域和气溶胶成分，并且大于气候对两年内CO2加倍的敏感性。
三个模型。我们更新了以前对区域温度潜势（RTP）的估计，RTP是一种估计区域温度响应的度量，
区域排放扰动，可便利利用综合评估模型评估气候影响，
计算要求高的耦合气候模型模拟。这些计算结果表明，区域内对气溶胶强迫的响应是强有力的，
北方半球中纬度地区，无论气溶胶强迫在纵向上位于何处。我们表明，区域气溶胶扰动
可以显著增加区域范围内的极端温度。除了在北极的夏季，极端温度的反应主要是
通过温度分布的变化反映区域气溶胶扰动的平均温度响应，主要由
本地而不是远程气溶胶强迫。
Abstract. The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We
investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA
GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual
year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of
sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme
temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean
surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically
significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to −0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions
is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of
European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India,
significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions
perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In
the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either
within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m−2)−1 depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two
of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to
a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring
computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the
Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations
can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely
mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by
local rather than remote aerosol forcing.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Persad GG;Caldeira K
通讯作者：
Caldeira K
影响因子：
8
作者：
Raphael, M. N.;Marshall, G. J.;Hobbs, W. R.
通讯作者：
Hobbs, W. R.
极性放大模型比对项目 (PAMIP) 对 CMIP6 的贡献：调查极性放大的原因和后果
DOI：
10.5194/gmd-2018-82
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Smith D
通讯作者：
Smith D