Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance.
Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2021.0811
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发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Schiffer JT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goyal A;Reeves DB;Schiffer JT
新的 SARS-CoV-2 相关变种 (VOC) 的出现阻碍了国际社会遏制 COVID-19 大流行的努力。挥发性有机化合物在不同程度上具有较高的传播性、较差的感染结果以及逃避疫苗和感染引起的免疫记忆的特点。据推测，挥发性有机化合物源自动物储存库、监测水平较低的地区的社区和/或对病毒的免疫控制较差的单个个体。然而，决定哪些变异最终占主导地位的因素仍未完全确定。在这里，我们提出了一个 SARS-CoV-2 动力学的多尺度模型，该模型描述了病毒载量和接触人数（从过度分散的分布中得出）均随时间变化的个体之间的人口传播。该框架使我们能够探索超级传播者事件（SSE）（定义为每天超过五次继发感染）如何导致变异的出现。我们发现随机性仍然是主导地位的强大决定因素。占主导地位的变体更有可能与较高的传染性相关，即变体出现后早期的 SSE 以及当前占主导地位的变体的持续衰退。此外，我们的模拟表明，感染一个或几个个体的大多数新的高传染性变体并不能在人群中实现永久性。因此，减少超级传播的干预措施可能会延迟或减轻挥发性有机化合物的出现。
The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has hampered international efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. VOCs have been characterized to varying degrees by higher transmissibility, worse infection outcomes and evasion of vaccine and infection-induced immunologic memory. VOCs are hypothesized to have originated from animal reservoirs, communities in regions with low surveillance and/or single individuals with poor immunologic control of the virus. Yet, the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate remain incompletely characterized. Here we present a multi-scale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics that describes population spread through individuals whose viral loads and numbers of contacts (drawn from an over-dispersed distribution) are both time-varying. This framework allows us to explore how super-spreader events (SSE) (defined as greater than five secondary infections per day) contribute to variant emergence. We find stochasticity remains a powerful determinant of predominance. Variants that predominate are more likely to be associated with higher infectiousness, an SSE early after variant emergence and ongoing decline of the current dominant variant. Additionally, our simulations reveal that most new highly infectious variants that infect one or a few individuals do not achieve permanence in the population. Consequently, interventions that reduce super-spreading may delay or mitigate emergence of VOCs.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
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