Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.
Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.
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干旱中东部地区暖季降雨变化的区域差异
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-31246-3
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发表时间：
2018-08-29
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lin G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong W;Lin Y;Wright JS;Xie Y;Ming Y;Zhang H;Chen R;Chen Y;Xu F;Lin N;Yu C;Zhang B;Jin S;Yang K;Li Z;Guo J;Wang L;Lin G
多项研究报告称，在世纪之交，干旱的东亚-中亚（AECA）暖季降雨的趋势发生了变化，从20世纪下半叶的增加到21世纪初的减少。这里，基于多个降水数据集的仔细观察揭示了这些变化的重要区域差异。1961-1998年暖季盆地地区和山脉的降雨量都增加了，这是由于与大尺度环流变化和大气含水量增加有关的水汽通量辐合增强。尽管1998年以后高山地区暖季降水明显减少，但低洼盆地地区暖季降水仍然很大。这种差异也反映在河流流量、土壤湿度和植被的变化上，主要是由于AECA山区和盆地地区对增温的不同响应。除了主要环流和水汽输送模式的变化外，山区降水减少的主要原因是当地水汽饱和容量（随温度变化）的增加超过了可用水分供应，从而降低了相对湿度，抑制了降水。相比之下，流域地区的降雨是由冰川快速退缩、积雪融化和灌溉扩张驱动的加速水分循环维持的。这种趋势是不可持续的，随着这些冰冻圈缓冲的消失，可能会发生逆转，对当地农业和生态造成潜在的灾难性影响。
Multiple studies have reported a shift in the trend of warm season rainfall over arid eastern–central Asia (AECA) around the turn of the new century, from increasing over the second half of the twentieth century to decreasing during the early years of the twenty-first. Here, a closer look based on multiple precipitation datasets reveals important regional disparities in these changes. Warm-season rainfall increased over both basin areas and mountain ranges during 1961–1998 due to enhanced moisture flux convergence associated with changes in the large-scale circulation and increases in atmospheric moisture content. Despite a significant decrease in warm-season precipitation over the high mountain ranges after the year 1998, warm season rainfall has remained large over low-lying basin areas. This discrepancy, which is also reflected in changes in river flow, soil moisture, and vegetation, primarily results from disparate responses to enhanced warming in the mountain and basin areas of AECA. In addition to changes in the prevailing circulation and moisture transport patterns, the decrease in precipitation over the mountains has occurred mainly because increases in local water vapor saturation capacity (which scales with temperature) have outpaced the available moisture supply, reducing relative humidity and suppressing precipitation. By contrast, rainfall over basin areas has been maintained by accelerated moisture recycling driven by rapid glacier retreat, snow melt, and irrigation expansion. This trend is unsustainable and is likely to reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear, with potentially catastrophic implications for local agriculture and ecology.
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中亚水塔的变化：过去、现在和未来
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chen, Yaning;Li, Weihong;Li, Zhi
通讯作者：
Li, Zhi
新疆极端气温时空变化特征分析
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Ling, Hongbo;Xu, Hailiang;Xu, Xinwen
通讯作者：
Xu, Xinwen
DOI：
10.1002/joc.626
发表时间：
2001-04-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Aizen, EM;Aizen, VB;Ohta, T
通讯作者：
Ohta, T
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Soden, Brian J.;Held, Isaac M.
通讯作者：
Held, Isaac M.
影响因子：
13.5
作者：
Huete, A;Didan, K;Ferreira, LG
通讯作者：
Ferreira, LG