Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US.
Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US.
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COVID-19在美国的流行病学和经济影响。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-99712-z
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发表时间：
2021-10-14
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Marathe A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen J;Vullikanti A;Santos J;Venkatramanan S;Hoops S;Mortveit H;Lewis B;You W;Eubank S;Marathe M;Barrett C;Marathe A
这项研究衡量了美国在不同缓解情景下COVID-19传播的流行病学和经济影响，包括非药物干预。结合COVID-19的详细疾病模型和美国经济模型，估计发病率、死亡率和封锁对各部门劳动力供应冲击的直接影响，以及部门间相互依赖性造成的间接影响。在封锁期间，对每个部门在家工作的估计被用来修正对劳动力供应的冲击。结果显示，经济损失、挽救的生命和避免的感染之间的权衡是非线性的，与社交距离和封锁的持续时间有关。受打击最严重的部门不是农业和建筑业等劳动密集型部门，而是专业服务等高价值工作的部门，即使考虑到工作的远程可操作性。此外，研究结果表明，较长的停工期可以克服对干预措施的低依从性，反之亦然，以达到类似的流行病学影响，但其对经济损失的净影响取决于避免感染和死亡的边际收益之间的相互作用，与停工期间健康工人留在家中的边际损失。
This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of the lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as the Agriculture sector and the Construction sector, but the ones with high valued jobs such as the Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Liu QH;Bento AI;Yang K;Zhang H;Yang X;Merler S;Vespignani A;Lv J;Yu H;Zhang W;Zhou T;Ajelli M
通讯作者：
Ajelli M
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chen，Jiangzhuo;Marathe，Achla;Marathe，Madhav
通讯作者：
Marathe，Madhav
通过时间再生数估计评估中国控制措施对 COVID-19 的效果
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Chen D;Zhou T
通讯作者：
Zhou T
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Marathe A;Lewis B;Barrett C;Chen J;Marathe M;Eubank S;Ma Y
通讯作者：
Ma Y