Time tracking and multidimensional influencing factors analysis on female breast cancer mortality: Evidence from urban and rural China between 1994 to 2019.
Time tracking and multidimensional influencing factors analysis on female breast cancer mortality: Evidence from urban and rural China between 1994 to 2019.
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女性乳腺癌死亡率时间追踪及多维影响因素分析：1994-2019年中国城乡的证据
DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2022.1000892
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shi, Baoguo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bai, Xiaodan;Zhang, Xiyu;Xiang, Wenjing;Wang, Yanjie;Cao, Yu;Geng, Guihong;Wu, Bing;Lai, Yongqiang;Li, Ye;Shi, Baoguo
关键词：
中国城乡女性乳腺癌死亡率存在巨大差异。为了在城乡更好地平等预防乳腺癌，追溯过去不平等的根源并预测未来差异将如何变化至关重要。此外，从微观个体到宏观环境的致癌因素也需要详细分析。然而，目前文献中没有涵盖这两个方面的系统研究。
收集了1994年至2019年中国城乡乳腺癌死亡率数据，这些数据来自《中国卫生统计年鉴》。采用年龄 - 时期 - 队列模型来检验不同年龄组、时期和出生队列对乳腺癌死亡率的影响。使用Nordpred项目预测2020年至2039年的乳腺癌死亡率。
年龄效应逐渐增加，并在40 - 44岁时从负变为正。时期效应波动很小，且在2019年城乡差异最大。出生队列效应逐渐下降，城乡效应强弱交替。在预测结果中，城乡死亡率差距先缩小后扩大，并呈现出死亡年轻化的趋势。
从时间系统的角度来看，乳腺癌死亡率的变化趋势与中国社会经济结构变化的历史高度一致。从健康的社会决定因素理论的角度来看，个人、家庭、机构和政府都需要参与乳腺癌的预防。
There are huge differences in female breast cancer mortality between urban and rural China. In order to better prevent breast cancer equally in urban and rural areas, it is critical to trace the root causes of past inequities and predict how future differences will change. Moreover, carcinogenic factors from micro-individual to macro-environment also need to be analyzed in detail. However, there is no systematic research covering these two aspects in the current literature. Breast cancer mortality data in urban and rural China from 1994 to 2019 are collected, which from China Health Statistical Yearbook. The Age-Period-Cohort model is used to examine the effects of different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts on breast cancer mortality. Nordpred project is used to predict breast cancer mortality from 2020 to 2039. The age effect gradually increases and changes from negative to positive at the age of 40–44. The period effect fluctuates very little and shows the largest difference between urban and rural areas in 2019. The birth cohort effect gradually decreases with urban-rural effects alternating between strong and weak. In the predicted results, the urban-rural mortality gap becomes first narrow and then wide and shows a trend of younger death. From the perspective of a temporal system, the changing trend of breast cancer mortality is highly consistent with the history of social and economic structural changes in China. From the perspective of the theory of social determinants of health, individuals, families, institutions and governments need to participate in the prevention of breast cancer.
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影响因子：
4
作者：
Li S;Chen H;Man J;Zhang T;Yin X;He Q;Yang X;Lu M
通讯作者：
Lu M
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Fei X;Wu J;Kong Z;Christakos G
通讯作者：
Christakos G
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Beral, V;Hamajima, N;Hirose, K;Rohan, T;Calle, EE;Heath, CW;Coates, RJ;Liff, JM;Talamini, R;Chantarakul, N;Koetsawang, S;Rachawat, D;Morabia, A;Schuman, L;Stewart, W;Szklo, M;Bain, C;Schofield, F;Siskind, V;Band, P;Coldman, AJ;Gallagher, RP;Hislop, TG;Yang, P;Kolonel, LM;Nomura, AMY;Hu, J;Johnson, KC;Mao, Y;De Sanjose, S;Lee, N;Marchbanks, P;Ory, HW;Peterson, HB;Wilson, HG;Wingo, PA;Ebeling, K;Kunde, D;Nishan, P;Hopper, JL;Colditz, G;Gajalakshmi, V;Martin, N;Pardthaisong, T;Solpisornkosol, S;Theetranont, C;Boosiri, B;Chutivongse, S;Jimakorn, P;Virutamasen, P;Wongsrichanalai, C;Ewertz, M;Adami, HO;Bergkvist, L;Magnusson, C;Persson, I;Chang-Claude, J;Paul, C;Skegg, DCG;Spears, GFS;Boyle, P;Evstifeeva, T;Daling, JR;Hutchinson, WB;Malone, K;Noonan, EA;Stanford, JL;Thomas, DB;Weiss, NS;White, E;Andrieu, N;Brêmond, A;Clavel, F;Gairard, B;Lansac, J;Piana, L;Renaud, R;Izquierdo, A;Viladiu, P;Cuevas, HR;Ontiveros, P;Palet, A;Salazar, SB;Arsitizabal, N;Cuadros, A;Tryggvadottir, L;Tulinius, H;Bachelot, A;Lê, MG;Peto, J;Franceschi, S;Lubin, F;Modan, B;Ron, E;Wax, Y;Friedman, GD;Hiatt, RA;Levi, F;Bishop, T;Kosmelj, K;Primic-Zakelj, M;Ravnihar, B;Stare, J;Beeson, WL;Fraser, G;Bulbrook, RD;Cuzick, J;Duffy, SW;Fentiman, IS;Hayward, JL;Wang, DY;McMichael, AJ;McPherson, K;Hanson, RL;Leske, MC;Mahoney, MC;Nasca, PC;Varma, AO;Weinstein, AL;Moller, TR;Olsson, H;Ranstam, J;Goldbohm, RA;van den Brandt, PA;Apelo, RA;Baens, J;de la Cruz, JR;Javier, B;Lacaya, LB;Ngelangel, CA;La Vecchia, C;Negri, E;Marubini, E;Ferraroni, M;Gerber, M;Richardson, S;Segala, C;Gatei, D;Kenya, P;Kungu, A;Mati, JG;Brinton, LA;Hoover, R;Schairer, C;Spirtas, R;Lee, HP;Rookus, MA;van Leeuwen, FE;Schoenberg, JA;McCredie, M;Gammon, MD;Clarke, EA;Jones, L;Neil, A;Vessey, M;Yeates, D;Appleby, P;Banks, E;Bull, D;Crossley, B;Goodill, A;Green, J;Hermon, C;Key, T;Langston, N;Lewis, C;Reeves, G;Collins, R;Doll, R;Peto, R;Mabuchi, K;Preston, D;Hannaford, P;Kay, C;Rosero-Bixby, L;Gao, YT;Jin, F;Yuan, JM;Wei, HY;Yun, T;Zhiheng, C;Berry, G;Cooper Booth, J;Jelihovsky, T;MacLennan, R;Shearman, R;Wang, QS;Baines, CJ;Miller, AB;Wall, C;Lund, E;Stalsberg, H;Shu, XO;Zheng, W;Katsouyanni, K;Trichopoulou, A;Trichopoulos, D;Dabancens, A;Martinez, L;Molina, R;Salas, O;Alexander, XE;Anderson, K;Folsom, AR;Hulka, BS;Bernstein, L;Enger, S;Haile, RW;Paganini-Hill, A;Pike, MC;Ross, RK;Ursin, G;Yu, MC;Longnecker, MP;Newcomb, P;Bergkvist, L;Kalache, A;Farley, TMM;Holck, S;Meirik, O
通讯作者：
Meirik, O
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Johansson, Anna L. V.;Trewin, Cassia B.;Ursin, Giske
通讯作者：
Ursin, Giske
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Luo, Liying
通讯作者：
Luo, Liying