Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya.
Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya.
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对肯尼亚南部炭疽病的空间分布进行建模。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009301
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Bett B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otieno FT;Gachohi J;Gikuma-Njuru P;Kariuki P;Oyas H;Canfield SA;Blackburn JK;Njenga MK;Bett B
炭疽病是肯尼亚的一种重要的人畜共患病，与高动物和公共卫生负担以及广泛的社会经济影响有关。这种疾病发生在涉及牲畜、野生动物和人类的零星暴发中，但对影响这些暴发的地理分布的因素的了解有限，对公共卫生干预规划构成了挑战。2011年至2017年在肯尼亚南部报告的炭疽监测数据是使用增强回归树(BRT)框架建模的。使用18个环境协变量和69个独特的炭疽病位置的变量集开发了一个由100个BRT实验组成的集合。使用曲线下面积(AUC)和接收器工作特性(ROC)曲线对模型性能进行评估。牛密度、最湿月降雨量、土壤粘粒含量、土壤pH、土壤有机碳、最长旱季长度、植被指数、温度季节性依次被确定为预测该地区炭疽病环境适宜性的关键变量。BRTS表现良好，平均AUC为0.8。据预测，高度适合炭疽的地区主要在肯尼亚-坦桑尼亚共同边界附近的西南部地区，以及肯尼亚中部地区和高地的地带。这些适宜的区域向西延伸，覆盖西部高地和维多利亚湖周围的西部地区以及与乌干达接壤的西部地区。据预测，整个东部和东部偏低的沿海地区对炭疽的适宜性较低。这些建模工作确定了整个肯尼亚南部适合炭疽热的地区，包括对旅游和外汇很重要的高和中等农业潜力地区和野生动物园。这些预测对政策制定者在肯尼亚设计有针对性的监测和/或控制干预措施很有用。我们感谢农业、畜牧和渔业部兽医局的工作人员收集和提供炭疽病历史发生数据。炭疽病是一种在世界范围内被忽视的人畜共患病。在肯尼亚，已报告在野生动物、牲畜和人类中爆发疫情，造成严重的公共卫生负担和社会经济影响。正因为如此，炭疽病被列为该国最优先的疾病。为了确定影响肯尼亚疾病空间分布的因素，我们分析了对该国南部记录的炭疽疫情的监测。据预测，高度适合这种疾病的地区主要位于肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚共同边界附近的西南部地区，作为一条带状穿过肯尼亚的中部地区和中部高地。这些适宜区向西延伸，覆盖西部高地和维多利亚湖周围的西部地区以及与乌干达接壤的西部地区。据预测，整个东部和东部偏低的沿海地区对炭疽的适宜性较低。牛密度、最湿月降雨量、土壤粘粒含量、土壤pH、土壤有机碳、最长旱季长度、植被指数和温度季节性是预测该地区炭疽病分布的关键变量。这项研究绘制了一张适宜性地图，描绘了可以作为基于风险的监测和/或疾病控制措施的目标的地理区域。
Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning. Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax. These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data. Anthrax is a neglected zoonosis worldwide. In Kenya, outbreaks have been reported in wildlife, livestock, and humans, resulting in severe public health burden and socio-economic impacts. Because of this, anthrax is ranked as the highest priority disease in the country. To identify factors that influence the spatial distribution of the disease in Kenya, we analyzed surveillance on available anthrax outbreaks recorded in the southern half of the country. Areas predicted to be highly suitable for the disease were predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border running as a belt through central regions and central highlands of Kenya. These suitability regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax. Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index and temperature seasonality were key variables predicting the distribution of anthrax in the region. The study generated a suitability map depicting geographical areas that can be targeted for risk-based surveillance and or control measures for the disease.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Barro AS;Fegan M;Moloney B;Porter K;Muller J;Warner S;Blackburn JK
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
影响因子：
28.3
作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Kracalik, Ian T.;Blackburn, Jason K.
通讯作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Clegg, S. B.;Turnbull, P. C. B.;Lindeque, R. M.
通讯作者：
Lindeque, R. M.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hengl T;Mendes de Jesus J;Heuvelink GB;Ruiperez Gonzalez M;Kilibarda M;Blagotić A;Shangguan W;Wright MN;Geng X;Bauer-Marschallinger B;Guevara MA;Vargas R;MacMillan RA;Batjes NH;Leenaars JG;Ribeiro E;Wheeler I;Mantel S;Kempen B
通讯作者：
Kempen B
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hollings, Tracey;Robinson, Andrew;Burgman, Mark
通讯作者：
Burgman, Mark