Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh.
Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh.
复制标题
破坏，而不是位移：孟加拉国的环境变异性和临时迁移。
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.08.008
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发表时间：
2017-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Emch M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Call MA;Gray C;Yunus M;Emch M
大规模移民是全球气候变化最令人担忧的潜在后果之一。最近对环境引起的移民的研究表明，这种关系比“环境难民”假说最初提出的要复杂得多。气候变化可能会在某些情况下增加移民，在另一些情况下减少移民，而且这些流动往往是暂时和短期的，而不是永久和长期的。然而，很少有大样本研究考察了环境条件变化下临时迁移的演变。为了解决这一差距，我们测量了温度、降水和洪水在多大程度上可以预测孟加拉国马特拉布的临时移民。我们的分析结合了高频人口监测数据、离散时间事件历史方法以及一系列社会人口统计学和背景控制。这种方法表明，洪水过后迁徙立即减少，但很快恢复正常。相比之下，最佳降水量和高温对临时迁徙产生持续的积极影响，这种影响会持续一到两年。基于之前对长期移民的研究，这些结果挑战了洪水、极端降水和高温将持续增加临时移民的普遍假设。相反，我们的结果与环境移民的生计解释是一致的，其中家庭利用一系列策略来应对环境变化。
Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the ‘environmental refugee’ hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, optimal precipitation and high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation of environmental migration in which households draw on a range of strategies to cope with environmental variability.
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DOI：
10.1080/00045608.2014.892351
发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
Annals of the Association of American Geographers. Association of American Geographers
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gray C;Frankenberg E;Gillespie T;Sumantri C;Thomas D
通讯作者：
Thomas D
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
Banerjee, Lopamudra
通讯作者：
Banerjee, Lopamudra
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
Gray, Clark;Mueller, Valerie
通讯作者：
Mueller, Valerie
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Alam, Nurul;Barkat-e-Khuda
通讯作者：
Barkat-e-Khuda
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Adger, W. Neil
通讯作者：
Adger, W. Neil