Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami.
Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami.
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DOI：
10.1080/00045608.2014.892351
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Thomas D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray C;Frankenberg E;Gillespie T;Sumantri C;Thomas D
近年来，对人类对环境变化脆弱性的理解有所进展，但衡量脆弱性并解释受变化影响不同的许多地点的流动性仍然是一个重大挑战。根据对2004年印度洋海啸前居住在印度尼西亚沿海地区并在海啸后再次接受采访的受访者收集的纵向数据，本文说明了基于人口的调查方法、卫星图像和多元统计分析的结合如何有可能对重大灾害的脆弱性、流动性和对人口福祉的影响提供新的见解。这些数据用于绘制和分析亚齐省和北苏门答腊省海啸后流离失所的脆弱性，并比较海啸后受损地区和未直接受海啸影响的地区之间的移徙模式。这一比较表明，灾难后的移民总体上比其他情况下的移民选择性更低。例如，性别和年龄是从未受损地区迁出的强烈预测因素，但与遭受破坏地区的流离失所无关。在我们的分析中，传统的脆弱性预测指标并不总是在预期的方向上发挥作用。较低的社会经济地位和教育水平并不预示着海啸后会搬家，尽管对于那些确实搬家的人来说，他们预示着会被转移到难民营而不是私人家中。这种基于调查的方法，虽然不是没有困难，但广泛适用于人类环境研究的许多主题，并潜在地打开了在这篇文献中严格检验新假设的大门。
Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and were re-interviewed after the tsunami, this paper illustrates how the combination of population-based survey methods, satellite imagery and multivariate statistical analyses has the potential to provide new insights into vulnerability, mobility and impacts of major disasters on population well-being. The data are used to map and analyze vulnerability to post-tsunami displacement across the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra and to compare patterns of migration after the tsunami between damaged areas and areas not directly affected by the tsunami. The comparison reveals that migration after a disaster is less selective overall than migration in other contexts. Gender and age, for example, are strong predictors of moving from undamaged areas but are not related to displacement in areas experiencing damage. In our analyses traditional predictors of vulnerability do not always operate in expected directions. Low levels of socioeconomic status and education were not predictive of moving after the tsunami, although for those who did move, they were predictive of displacement to a camp rather than a private home. This survey-based approach, though not without difficulties, is broadly applicable to many topics in human-environment research, and potentially opens the door to rigorous testing of new hypotheses in this literature.
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