Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.04.005
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发表时间:
2011-01
期刊:
影响因子:
4.9
通讯作者:
Malanson, George P.
Malanson, George P.
中科院分区:
地球科学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Mena, Carlos F.;Walsh, Stephen J.;Frizzelle, Brian G.;Yao Xiaozheng;Malanson, George P.

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本文描述了一个基于代理的模型(ABM)的设计和实现,用于模拟家庭农场的土地利用变化在北方厄瓜多尔亚马逊(NEA)。ABM模拟家庭一级的决策过程,通过1990年和1999年进行的纵向社会经济和人口调查进行审查。地理信息系统被用来建立农场与其环境之间的空间关系,而分类的陆地卫星专题制图仪图像被用来设定空间模拟的初始土地利用/土地覆盖条件,评估从土地利用/土地覆盖到土地利用/土地覆盖的变化模式,并描述农场和景观一级土地利用变化的轨迹。NEA先前研究的结果提供了对关键社会和生态变量的见解,描述了人类行为功能,并研究了与森林砍伐和农业扩展,人口迁移和人口变化有关的人口-环境相互作用。在模型的体系结构中,代理被分类为主动或被动。该模型包括四个模块,即,初始化、人口、农业和移徙,这些因素单独运作,但通过关键的家庭过程联系在一起。该模型的主要产出包括调查和非调查农场的土地利用/土地覆盖的空间明确表示,并在景观水平上为每年的时间步长,以及模拟的社会经济和人口特征的家庭和社区。这项工作描述了模型的设计和实施,以及如何在前沿环境中解决人口与环境的相互作用。该论文通过研究重要的模式-过程关系,倡导能够综合农场层面基本关系并以复杂方式将人与环境联系起来的空间建模方法,为土地变化科学做出了贡献。
This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.
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