Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections.
Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2021.11.007
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Roberts MS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krauland MG;Galloway DD;Raviotta JM;Zimmerman RK;Roberts MS
2020-2021年流感季节期间遏制COVID-19传播的干预措施基本上消除了该季节的流感。鉴于抗体滴度随着时间的推移而减弱，未来剩余人群对流感的免疫力将降低。对随后的2021-2022年流感季节的影响尚不清楚。在流行病学动力学重建框架模拟平台中实现的基于代理的流感模型用于估计连续2个流感季节的病例和住院人数。由于在第一个季节的保护措施，剩余免疫力下降的影响，估计在不同程度的相似性（交叉免疫）的流感病毒株之间的季节。当第一季和第二季毒株之间的交叉免疫力较低时，第一季的下降对第二季病例的影响有限。高水平的交叉免疫导致了对第二季的影响更大。这种影响被两个季节中菌株的传播性所改变。该模型估计，在传播力相同的季节，病例数可能比正常季节增加13.52%~ 46.95%，在一个很低的季节后，交叉免疫可能增加40%~ 50%。鉴于2020-2021年流感季节较轻，2021-2022年病例可能会增加50%，尽管增加幅度可能会小得多，这取决于过去感染的交叉免疫力和菌株的传播性。提高疫苗覆盖率或继续采取干预措施以减少传播可能会减少这一高发季节。2021-2022年，由于前一年接触感染的机会有限，幼儿的风险可能更高。
Interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 during the 2020–2021 influenza season essentially eliminated influenza during that season. Given waning antibody titers over time, future residual population immunity against influenza will be reduced. The implication for the subsequent 2021–2022 influenza season is unknown. An agent-based model of influenza implemented in the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics simulation platform was used to estimate cases and hospitalizations over 2 successive influenza seasons. The impact of reduced residual immunity owing to protective measures in the first season was estimated over varying levels of similarity (cross-immunity) between influenza strains over the seasons. When cross-immunity between first- and second-season strains was low, a decreased first season had limited impact on second-season cases. High levels of cross-immunity resulted in a greater impact on the second season. This impact was modified by the transmissibility of strains in the 2 seasons. The model estimated a possible increase of 13.52%–46.95% in cases relative to that in a normal season when strains have the same transmissibility and 40%–50% cross-immunity in a season after a very low one. Given the light 2020–2021 influenza season, cases may increase by as much as 50% in 2021–2022, although the increase could be much less, depending on cross-immunity from past infection and transmissibility of strains. Enhanced vaccine coverage or continued interventions to reduce transmission could reduce this high season. Young children may have a higher risk in 2021–2022 owing to limited exposure to infection in the previous year.
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影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Chowell, G.;Miller, M. A.;Viboud, C.
通讯作者：
Viboud, C.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.11.2100221
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Adlhoch C;Mook P;Lamb F;Ferland L;Melidou A;Amato-Gauci AJ;Pebody R;European Influenza Surveillance Network
通讯作者：
European Influenza Surveillance Network
DOI：
10.14745/ccdr.v47i01a01
发表时间：
2021-01-29
期刊：
Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lee, Liza;Butt, Kelly;Bancej, Christina
通讯作者：
Bancej, Christina
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Grefenstette JJ;Brown ST;Rosenfeld R;DePasse J;Stone NT;Cooley PC;Wheaton WD;Fyshe A;Galloway DD;Sriram A;Guclu H;Abraham T;Burke DS
通讯作者：
Burke DS