Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD
Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD
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气候对河流流量的影响：利用 UKCP09 和 CATCHMOD 对英国梅德韦流域进行预测
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.7769
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Cloke H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cloke H
气候变化对水资源具有战略重要性的地区的潜在影响仍然令人关切。在这里，河流流量预测的梅德威河，在英格兰东南部的泰斯顿以上，这正是这样一个具有战略意义的地区。河流流量预测使用哈德利中心区域气候模式（HadRM 3）1960-2080年的气候输入（早期发布的UKCP 09预测的子集）。河流流量预测使用CATCHMOD进行计算，CATCHMOD是英格兰和威尔士环境局（EA）的主要河流流量预测工具。为了以最佳方式使用这一工具进行气候变化预测，使用敏感性和不确定性分析来分析模型设置和性能。该模型的水文过程的代表性进行了讨论，并发现直接渗透和第一线性存储常数参数强烈影响模型结果在一个复杂的方式，前者更重要的低流量和后者的高流量。论证了水文模型参数预测的不确定性，并分析了未来气候条件下河流流量的预测。一个明确的气候变化影响信号是显而易见的，在所有月份和所有预测时间片的平均日河流流量持续下降的结果。结果表明，即使考虑到本建模链练习中考虑的不确定性，对未来气候下流量减少的预测也是有效的。未来气候条件下，随着河流流量的减少，模型参数的不确定性变得更加显著。这对那些根据这种模拟结果作出政策决定的人有重大影响。版权所有© 2010约翰威利父子有限公司.
The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Arnell, NW
通讯作者：
Arnell, NW
基于集合的气候变化及其影响预测
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Hewitt
通讯作者：
C. Hewitt
利用科学创造更美好的地方：将概率气候变化信息应用于战略资源评估。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Fung;A. López;M. New
通讯作者：
M. New