The global distribution and burden of dengue.
The global distribution and burden of dengue.
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作者：
登革热是一种由伊蚊在人与人之间传播的全身性病毒感染。对一些患者来说，登革热是一种危及生命的疾病。目前没有获得许可的疫苗或特定疗法，大量的病媒控制工作未能阻止其迅速出现和全球传播。目前，登革热病毒感染风险的全球分布及其公共卫生负担尚不清楚。在这里，我们对全世界登革热发生的已知记录进行了详尽的汇编，并使用正式的建模框架来绘制登革热风险的全球分布。然后，我们将得到的风险图与登革热队列研究和人口表面的详细纵向信息配对，以推断2010年登革热的公共卫生负担。我们预测登革热在整个热带地区普遍存在，当地风险的空间变化受到降雨、温度和城市化程度的强烈影响。使用制图方法，我们估计每年有3.9亿（95%可信区间284-528）登革热感染，其中9600万（67-136）明显表现（任何程度的临床或亚临床严重程度）。这一感染总数是世界卫生组织估计的登革热负担的三倍多。在考虑到正式报告明显感染的可能性后，我们按国家对估计数进行分层，以便与国家登革热报告进行比较。讨论了最显著的差异。这些新的风险图和感染估计为了解登革热造成的全球、区域和国家公共卫生负担提供了新的见解。我们预计，它们将为更广泛地讨论这一疾病的全球影响提供一个起点，并将有助于指导改进使用疫苗、药物和病媒控制方法的疾病控制战略及其经济评价。[285]
Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285]
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影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Johansson, Michael A.;Hombach, Joachim;Cummings, Derek A. T.
通讯作者：
Cummings, Derek A. T.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rogers, D. J.;Wilson, A. J.;Hay, S. I.;Graham, A. J.
通讯作者：
Graham, A. J.
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cummings DA;Iamsirithaworn S;Lessler JT;McDermott A;Prasanthong R;Nisalak A;Jarman RG;Burke DS;Gibbons RV
通讯作者：
Gibbons RV
DOI：
10.1006/smvy.1994.1014
发表时间：
1994-04-01
期刊：
SEMINARS IN VIROLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
MONATH, TP
通讯作者：
MONATH, TP
影响因子：
3
作者：
Gething PW;Patil AP;Smith DL;Guerra CA;Elyazar IR;Johnston GL;Tatem AJ;Hay SI
通讯作者：
Hay SI