Distributed lag non-linear models.

Distributed lag non-linear models.
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DOI:
10.1002/sim.3940
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发表时间:
2010-09-20
影响因子:
2
通讯作者:
Kenward, M. G.
Kenward, M. G.
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gasparrini, A.;Armstrong, B.;Kenward, M. G.

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环境压力往往表现出的影响,是在时间上的延迟,需要使用的统计模型,是灵活的,足以描述额外的时间维度的压力-反应关系。在这里,我们开发的家庭分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),建模框架,可以同时代表非线性的响应依赖性和延迟效应。这种方法是基于一个“交叉基础”的定义,一个二维空间的功能,同时描述的形状的关系沿着空间的预测和滞后尺寸的发生。通过这种方式,该方法为以前在此设置中使用的一系列模型提供了统一的框架,以及新的更灵活的变体。这一系列模型在统计环境R中的dlnm包中实现。为了说明方法,我们使用DLNM的例子来表示温度和死亡率之间的关系,使用的数据来自全国发病率,死亡率和空气污染研究(NMMAPS)的纽约在1987年至2000年期间。版权所有© 2010约翰威利父子有限公司.
Environmental stressors often show effects that are delayed in time, requiring the use of statistical models that are flexible enough to describe the additional time dimension of the exposure–response relationship. Here we develop the family of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM), a modelling framework that can simultaneously represent non-linear exposure–response dependencies and delayed effects. This methodology is based on the definition of a ‘cross-basis’, a bi-dimensional space of functions that describes simultaneously the shape of the relationship along both the space of the predictor and the lag dimension of its occurrence. In this way the approach provides a unified framework for a range of models that have previously been used in this setting, and new more flexible variants. This family of models is implemented in the package dlnm within the statistical environment R. To illustrate the methodology we use examples of DLNMs to represent the relationship between temperature and mortality, using data from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for New York during the period 1987–2000. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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