Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the U.K.
Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the U.K.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.05.025
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发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Barnett T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith RD;Keogh-Brown MR;Barnett T
人们对全球传染病大流行可能产生的影响，特别是对当前金融环境下的经济影响感到关切。然而，防范规划更多地侧重于人口健康和维持一个正常运作的卫生部门，而不是更广泛的经济影响。我们开发了一个单一国家可计算一般均衡模型来估计大流行性流感（PI）和相关政策的经济影响。虽然这一发展的背景是联合王国，但在将这一方法以及指示性结果应用于其他背景方面可以吸取教训。根据流行病学模型构建疾病情景，估计病死率（轻度、中度和重度）分别为0.06%、0.18%和0.35%。临床发作率为35%，还用于制定流感情景，以及防范政策，包括抗病毒药物和学校关闭，以及可能的预防性工作人员缺勤。给出了英国的成本估算（以英镑计算），以及适用于类似大型经济体的相对百分比影响。百分比/成本估算表明，在三种疾病情况下，PI将分别使GDP减少0.3%（35亿英镑）、0.4%（50亿英镑）和0.6%（74亿英镑）。然而，PI本身的影响小于疾病缓解政策：在三种情况下，将学校关闭与预防性缺勤相结合，分别产生1.1%（147亿英镑）、1.3%（163亿英镑）和1.4%（185亿英镑）的百分比/成本效应。敏感性分析显示，疾病参数的变化变化不大，但学校关闭和预防性缺勤的变化变化显著。最严重的敏感性情景导致这三种情景的GDP分别损失2.9%（374亿英镑）、3.2%（414亿英镑）和3.7%（475亿英镑）。流感防范规划的重点是人口健康和卫生部门的应变能力。政策和行为带来的经济负担比疾病本身更重。PI可能会使英国GDP减少0.3-0.6%，即35 - 74亿英镑。学校关闭和工人旷工将使成本增加1.1% - 1.4%，即147亿- 185亿英镑。结果表明，需要在“一切照常”和“保持社交距离”之间取得平衡。
There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts. Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers. UK cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£3.5bn), 0.4% (£5bn) and 0.6% (£7.4bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£14.7bn), 1.3% (£16.3bn) and 1.4% (£18.5bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£37.4bn), 3.2% (£41.4bn) and 3.7% (£47.5bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios. ► Flu preparedness planning focuses on population health and health sector resilience. ► Policies and behaviour incur a higher economic burden than illness alone. ► PI could reduce UK GDP by 0.3–0.6%, £3.5–7.4bn. ► School closure and worker absenteeism could increases costs to 1.1–1.4%, £14.7–18.5bn. ► Results highlight the need to balance “business as usual” with “social distancing”.
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