Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study.
Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study.
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简单易用的列线图预测广东省 MSM 梅毒风险：系列横断面研究结果
DOI：
10.1186/s12879-021-06912-z
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发表时间：
2021-11-29
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wang C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao P;Yang Z;Li B;Xiong M;Zhang Y;Zhou J;Wang C
为建立广东省男男性行为人群梅毒感染风险预测模型，采用2017 - 2019年广东省2184名男男性行为人群的横断面数据，建立广东省男男性行为人群梅毒感染风险预测模型。合格的MSM被随机分配到训练和验证数据集。包括在诺模图中的因素通过基于训练数据集的多变量逻辑回归分析来确定。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评价其预测准确性和区分能力。梅毒患病率为18.1%（396/2184）。多因素Logistic回归分析发现，年龄、寻找性伴侣的主要场所、近6个月内使用安全套、近6个月内商业性行为、近1年内感染性传播疾病（STD）与梅毒感染相关。所有这些因素都包括在诺模图模型中，并进行了良好的校准。C指数为0.80（95%CI 0.76-0.84）的训练dataset.ConclusionsA简单易用的诺模图预测梅毒的风险在广东省男男性接触者中已经开发和验证，在验证dataset.ConclusionsA简单易用的诺模图。提出的诺模图显示了良好的评估性能。
BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for the prediction of syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangdong Province.MethodsA serial cross-sectional data of 2184 MSM from 2017 to 2019 was used to develop and validate the nomogram risk assessment model. The eligible MSM were randomly assigned to the training and validation dataset. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis based on the training dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability.ResultsA total of 2184 MSM were recruited in this study. The prevalence of syphilis was 18.1% (396/2184). Multivariate logistic analysis found that age, the main venue used to find sexual partners, condom use in the past 6 months, commercial sex in the past 6 months, infection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) in the past year were associated with syphilis infection using the training dataset. All these factors were included in the nomogram model that was well calibrated. The C-index was 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) in the training dataset, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) in the validation dataset.ConclusionsA simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis has been developed and validated among MSM in Guangdong Province. The proposed nomogram shows good assessment performance.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Wang, Cheng;Tang, Weiming;Zheng, Heping
通讯作者：
Zheng, Heping
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Das A;Li J;Zhong F;Ouyang L;Mahapatra T;Tang W;Fu G;Zhao J;Detels R
通讯作者：
Detels R
中国男男性行为者艾滋病毒和梅毒感染流行情况的荟萃分析
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhou Y;Li D;Lu D;Ruan Y;Qi X;Gao G
通讯作者：
Gao G
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Wu, Zunyou;Xu, Jie;Wang, Yu
通讯作者：
Wang, Yu
影响因子：
2
作者：
HARRELL, FE;LEE, KL;ROSATI, RA
通讯作者：
ROSATI, RA