A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change.
A coupled human-natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2020431118
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发表时间：
2021-04-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Gorelick SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yoon J;Klassert C;Selby P;Lachaut T;Knox S;Avisse N;Harou J;Tilmant A;Klauer B;Mustafa D;Sigel K;Talozi S;Gawel E;Medellín-Azuara J;Bataineh B;Zhang H;Gorelick SM
约旦正面临着不断发展的水危机，气候变化和冲突引发的难民潮加剧了这一危机。我们提出了一个淡水安全分析的国家，使一个综合系统模型，结合模拟约旦的自然和建成的水环境与成千上万的代表性的人类代理确定水资源分配和使用决策。我们的分析指出，约旦的淡水安全出现了严重的、可能破坏稳定的下降。如果不采取干预措施，到世纪末，约旦90%以上的低收入人口将面临严重的水不安全状况。为了在水资源的未来站稳脚跟，约旦必须制定一套雄心勃勃的干预措施，涵盖供需两方面的措施，包括大规模海水淡化和全面的水部门改革。水资源有限、人口增长和气候变化导致许多国家出现淡水危机。约旦的情况具有代表性，冲突引起的人口冲击使情况更加复杂。综合水文学、气候学、农业、政治学、地理学和经济学知识，我们提出了约旦水模型，这是一个全国性的人类-自然-工程系统耦合模型，用于评估气候和社会经济变化下约旦的淡水安全。复杂系统模型模拟了约旦水系统的轨迹，代表了一系列行为者与自然和工程水环境之间的动态相互作用。多主体建模方法可以量化各部门数千个代表性主体的影响，从而可以评估系统范围和分布结果，并将其转化为一套水安全指标（脆弱性，公平性，短缺持续时间和经济福祉）。模型结果表明，淡水安全严重下降，可能破坏稳定。到世纪末，人均可用水将减少约50%。如果不采取干预措施，到世纪末，90%以上的低收入家庭人口将面临严重的不安全状况，人均每天领取不到40升。淡水使用的差距扩大，短缺持续时间延长，经济福利下降是普遍的叙述。为了立足于其淡水的未来，约旦必须制定一整套雄心勃勃的干预措施，包括大规模的海水淡化和全面的水部门改革，模型结果显示，通过协调供需方措施，水安全得到了指数级的改善。
Jordan is facing an unfolding water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and conflict-induced refugee influxes. We present a freshwater security analysis for the country, enabled by an integrated systems model that combines simulation of Jordan’s natural and built water environment with thousands of representative human agents determining water allocation and use decisions. Our analysis points to severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in Jordan’s freshwater security. Without intervening measures, over 90% of Jordan’s low-income population will be experiencing critical water insecurity by the end of the century. To gain a foothold on its water future, Jordan must enact an ambitious portfolio of interventions that span supply- and demand-side measures, including large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water-sector reform. Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1808893115
发表时间：
2018-09-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Gleick, Peter H.
通讯作者：
Gleick, Peter H.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Flaspohler, DJ;Temple, SA;Rosenfield, RN
通讯作者：
Rosenfield, RN
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2003)129:1(4
发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Cai, XM;McKinney, DC;Lasdon, LS
通讯作者：
Lasdon, LS
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Klassert, Christian;Sigel, Katja;Klauer, Bernd
通讯作者：
Klauer, Bernd
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Mustafa, Daanish;Tillotson, Matthew
通讯作者：
Tillotson, Matthew