Can El Niño-Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces.
Can El Niño-Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces.
复制标题
厄尔尼诺和南方涛动会增加中国呼吸道传染病的发病率吗？
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph19052971
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发表时间：
2022-03-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Xu W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang Q;Gong K;Xiong L;Dong Y;Xu W
呼吸道传染病（RID）是我国主要传染病，对气候条件高度敏感。目前的研究主要集中在天气对RID的影响上，而缺乏对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对RID影响的研究。因此，本文利用系统广义矩方法（SYS-GMM）和中国31个省份2007 - 2018年的数据，构建动态面板模型，实证检验ENSO与RID发病率之间的因果关系。此外，本文还考虑了人均可支配收入和平均受教育年限对这种因果关系的调节作用。结果表明，ENSO对RID发病率有显著的正向影响，厄尔尼诺年RID发病率比正常年高5.842%。此外，人均可支配收入和平均受教育年限可有效削弱厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与营养不良发病率之间的关系。因此，本文对于完善我国荒漠化病气候预警系统，有效控制荒漠化病的蔓延具有重要意义。
Respiratory infectious diseases (RID) are the major form of infectious diseases in China, and are highly susceptible to climatic conditions. Current research mainly focuses on the impact of weather on RID, but there is a lack of research on the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on RID. Therefore, this paper uses the system generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and the data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2018 to construct a dynamic panel model to empirically test the causality between ENSO and RID morbidity. Moreover, this paper considers the moderating effects of per capita disposable income and average years of education on this causality. The results show that ENSO can positively and significantly impact RID morbidity, which is 5.842% higher during El Niño years than normal years. In addition, per capita disposable income and average years of education can effectively weaken the relationship between ENSO and RID morbidity. Thus, this paper is of great significance for improving the RID early climate warning system in China and effectively controlling the spread of RID.
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影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Gurgel RQ;Bezerra PGM;Duarte MDCMB;Moura AÁ;Souza EL;Silva LSDS;Suzuki CE;Peixoto RB
通讯作者：
Peixoto RB
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Luo, Ming;Lau, Ngar-Cheung
通讯作者：
Lau, Ngar-Cheung
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
HOLTZEAKIN, D
通讯作者：
HOLTZEAKIN, D
影响因子：
--
作者：
Khider, D.;Stott, L. D.;Hammond, D. E.
通讯作者：
Hammond, D. E.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Anyamba, Assaf;Chretien, Jean-Paul;Linthicum, Kenneth J.
通讯作者：
Linthicum, Kenneth J.