The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.
The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-28145-7
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发表时间：
2022-01-27
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Pascual M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Santos-Vega M;Martinez PP;Vaishnav KG;Kohli V;Desai V;Bouma MJ;Pascual M
城市化的快速步伐使我们必须更好地了解气候强迫对城市疟疾传播的影响。尽管广泛的研究温度对媒介传播感染的影响，但相对湿度的考虑仍然有限。基于过程的动力学模型通知近二十年的每月监测数据，我们解决相对湿度的作用，在印度的两个半干旱城市的疟疾流行的年际变化。我们发现，在传播前的季节，湿度对沿海苏拉特和更干旱的内陆阿赫梅达巴德的疟疾负担有着强烈而显著的影响。利用参数的MLE（最大似然估计）对气候驱动的传播模型进行模拟，回顾性地捕获了观察到的疾病发病率的变异性，并前瞻性地预测了近年来“不适合”病例的变异性，具有很高的准确性。我们的研究结果表明，相对湿度是城市疟疾和其他潜在病媒传染病传播的关键因素，气候变化和城市缺乏水文规划可能会危及消除疟疾的努力。气候条件和城市化可能是媒介传播感染的主要驱动因素。在这里，作者证明了一个经常被忽视的气候变量，湿度，是印度两个城市地区疟疾流行的重要因素。
The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of ‘out-of-fit’ cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. Climate conditions and urbanization can be major drivers of vector-borne infections. Here the authors demonstrate that an often-neglected climate variable, humidity, is an important factor for malaria epidemics in two urban areas in India.
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