Are choices based on conditional or conjunctive probabilities in a sequential risk‐taking task?
Are choices based on conditional or conjunctive probabilities in a sequential risk‐taking task?
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在连续的冒险任务中，选择是基于条件概率还是联合概率？
DOI：
10.1002/bdm.2161
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Hübner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haffke;Hübner
在本研究中，我们考察了参与者在顺序冒险任务中的选择行为。我们对参与者关注下一个直接选择或考虑整个选择序列的程度特别感兴趣。为此，我们检查了决策是基于条件概率（例如，在下一次试验中成功）还是基于联合概率（连续多次成功）。用简化的九张哥伦比亚卡片任务和CPT模型分析进行的五个实验结果表明，两种概率类型的混合可以最好地描述参与者的选择行为。具体来说，对于他们的第一个选择，参与者依赖于条件概率，而随后的选择则基于联合概率。这种策略发生在不同的开始条件下，在这些条件下，或多或少的牌已经正面朝上了。因此，当参与者从一些牌朝上的状态开始时，与他们从一开始就到达那个状态时相比，风险选择的比例要高得多。结果，替代帐户和影响进行了讨论。
In this study, we examined participants' choice behavior in a sequential risk‐taking task. We were especially interested in the extent to which participants focus on the immediate next choice or consider the entire choice sequence. To do so, we inspected whether decisions were either based on conditional probabilities (e.g., being successful on the immediate next trial) or on conjunctive probabilities (of being successful several times in a row). The results of five experiments with a simplified nine‐card Columbia Card Task and a CPT‐model analysis show that participants' choice behavior can be described best by a mixture of the two probability types. Specifically, for their first choice, the participants relied on conditional probabilities, whereas subsequent choices were based on conjunctive probabilities. This strategy occurred across different start conditions in which more or less cards were already presented face up. Consequently, the proportion of risky choices was substantially higher when participants started from a state with some cards facing up, compared with when they arrived at that state starting from the very beginning. The results, alternative accounts, and implications are discussed.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
1969
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
P. Slovic
通讯作者：
P. Slovic
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Schein, Galit
DOI：
10.1037/0278-7393.34.1.167
发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Pleskac, Timothy J.
通讯作者：
Pleskac, Timothy J.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Doyle, JK
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