Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs
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基于 GFDL SPEAR 模型模拟的南大洋年代际预测技巧
DOI：
10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Lu Feiyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Liping;Delworth Thomas L;Yang Xiaosong;Morioka Yushi;Zeng Fanrong;Lu Feiyu
本研究使用模式相似技术来评估南大洋(SO)的年代际海表温度(SST)预报技巧。这里的模式模拟基于再分析产品和模式控制模拟，其中包括∼1海洋/冰(在高纬度时细化到0.5)分量和100公里大气/陆地分量。结果表明，模式模拟后预报的预报能力与初始的S以南年代际回溯性后预报相当，在较长提前年的威德尔海上的预报技巧更高。SST的高技能主要来自于成功捕捉到如此深的对流态。当我们在完美的模型环境中评估模型模拟技术时，这种深海记忆和相关的十年可预测性也清晰可见。在S-S纬度30-50范围内，模型模拟后播技术表现较低。当我们包括从大型系综模拟估计的外部强迫信号时，模式模拟后预测和初始化的十年后预测显示出相同的技能。因此，模型类比方法为开发未来十年预报系统提供了一个很好的基线。目前尚不清楚这种模拟技术是否也适用于明确解析海洋中尺度涡旋或其他小规模过程的模型。这一领域的研究需要进一步探索。
The Model-Analogs technique is used in the present study to assess the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill over the Southern Ocean (SO). The Model-Analogs here is based on reanalysis products and model control simulations that have∼ 1 ocean/ice (refined to 0.5 at high latitudes) components and 100 km atmosphere/land components. It is found that the model analog hindcasts show comparable skills with the initialized retrospective decadal hindcasts south of 50 S, with even higher skills over the Weddell Sea at longer lead years. The high SST skills primarily arise from the successful capture of SO deep convection states. This deep ocean memory and the associated decadal predictability are also clearly seen when we assess the Model-Analogs technique in a perfect model context. Within 30 S–50 S latitudinal band, the model analog hindcasts show low skills. When we include the externally forced signals estimated from the large ensemble simulations, the model analog hindcasts and initialized decadal hindcasts show identical skills. The Model-Analogs method therefore provides a great baseline for developing future decadal forecast systems. It is unclear whether such analog techniques would also be successful with models that explicitly resolve ocean mesoscale eddies or other small-scale processes. This area of research needs to be explored further.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
D. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;R. Eade;P. Athanasiadis;A. Bellucci;I. Bethke;R. Bilbao;L. Borchert;L. Caron;F. Counillon;G. Danabasoglu;T. Delworth;F. Doblas-Reyes;N. Dunstone;V. Estella-Perez;S. Flavoni;L. Hermanson;N. Keenlyside;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;W. Merryfield;J. Mignot;T. Mochizuki;K. Modali;P. Monerie;W. Müller;D. Nicolì;P. Ortega;K. Pankatz;H. Pohlmann;J. Robson;P. Ruggieri;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;D. Swingedouw;Y. Wang;S. Wild;S. Yeager;X. Yang;L. Zhang
通讯作者：
D. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;R. Eade;P. Athanasiadis;A. Bellucci;I. Bethke;R. Bilbao;L. Borchert;L. Caron;F. Counillon;G. Danabasoglu;T. Delworth;F. Doblas-Reyes;N. Dunstone;V. Estella-Perez;S. Flavoni;L. Hermanson;N. Keenlyside;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;W. Merryfield;J. Mignot;T. Mochizuki;K. Modali;P. Monerie;W. Müller;D. Nicolì;P. Ortega;K. Pankatz;H. Pohlmann;J. Robson;P. Ruggieri;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;D. Swingedouw;Y. Wang;S. Wild;S. Yeager;X. Yang;L. Zhang
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
Delworth, Thomas L.;Cooke, William F.;Zhao, Ming
通讯作者：
Zhao, Ming
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Kobayashi, Shinya;Ota, Yukinari;Takahashi, Kiyotoshi
通讯作者：
Takahashi, Kiyotoshi
使用 GFDL CM2.1 模型估算南大洋的年代际可预测性
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Liping Zhang;T. Delworth;Xiaosong Yang;R. Gudgel;L. Jia;G. Vecchi;F. Zeng
通讯作者：
F. Zeng