Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications.
Airborne disease transmission during indoor gatherings over multiple time scales: Modeling framework and policy implications.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2216948120
复制
发表时间：
2023-04-18
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Marathe, Madhav, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dixit, Avinash K.;Espinoza, Baltazar;Qiu, Zirou;Vullikanti, Anil;Marathe, Madhav, V
关键词：
群体聚集在封闭的空间(如教室、会议)是新冠肺炎等呼吸道疾病传播的重要途径。基于所提出的建模框架，在涉及多个时间尺度的室内会议的场景下，我们研究了空气传播疾病在一组人中的传播。我们的框架捕获了受感染个人的病毒脱落、场地的病毒动态以及群体组成和行为特征之间的反馈循环。我们研究通过实施旨在控制病毒载量的控制措施而出现的流行病学权衡。数值分析表明，通风和休息时间对于防止高病毒载量水平至关重要。此外，我们发现，它们的影响将等同于或超过对感染者的屏蔽和适度隔离。室内超级传播事件是呼吸道疾病传播的重要驱动因素。在这项工作中，我们研究了在封闭空间中连续举行的个人会议中空气传播的动力学。与通常的两两相互作用的感染模式不同，在这种模式下，有效的接触会传播疾病，我们关注的是具有不同健康状态的个人同时相遇的群体相互作用。具体地说，这种疾病是通过呼出飞沫(导致封闭空间中的病毒载量)的感染者和吸入受污染空气的易感人群传播的。我们提出了一个模型框架，该框架结合了在封闭空间中开会时获得的病毒载量的快速动态和人口水平上疾病进展的缓慢动态。我们的建模框架结合了不同设置中涉及的多个时间尺度，其中可能发生室内事件，从单一时间事件到每天主持多个会议的事件，在许多天内。我们给出了房间特征(通风系统效率和空气质量)与群体的行为和组成特征(群体规模、口罩依从性、测试、开会时间和休息时间)之间权衡的理论和数值结果，这些结果为室内政策提供了信息，以便在封闭的环境中通过不同的途径实现疾病控制。我们的结果强调了休息时间、戴口罩和测试对促进疾病控制的条件的影响。我们研究了不同休息时间、掩码合规性和测试的场景。我们还得出了将感染率控制在一定门槛以下的政策指导方针。
Group gathering in enclosed spaces (e.g., classrooms, conferences) is an important route for the spread of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Based on the proposed modeling framework, we examine airborne disease transmission among a group of people, under scenarios of indoor meetings involving multiple time scales. Our framework captures the feedback loop between infected individuals’ viral shedding, the venue’s viral dynamics, and the group composition and behavioral characteristics. We study the epidemiological trade-offs emerging by implementing control measures aimed at controlling the viral load. Numerical analysis suggests that ventilation and break times are critical in preventing high viral load levels. Moreover, we found that their impact would equal or exceed that of masking and moderate isolation of infected individuals. Indoor superspreading events are significant drivers of transmission of respiratory diseases. In this work, we study the dynamics of airborne transmission in consecutive meetings of individuals in enclosed spaces. In contrast to the usual pairwise-interaction models of infection where effective contacts transmit the disease, we focus on group interactions where individuals with distinct health states meet simultaneously. Specifically, the disease is transmitted by infected individuals exhaling droplets (contributing to the viral load in the closed space) and susceptible ones inhaling the contaminated air. We propose a modeling framework that couples the fast dynamics of the viral load attained over meetings in enclosed spaces and the slow dynamics of disease progression at the population level. Our modeling framework incorporates the multiple time scales involved in different setups in which indoor events may happen, from single-time events to events hosting multiple meetings per day, over many days. We present theoretical and numerical results of trade-offs between the room characteristics (ventilation system efficiency and air mass) and the group’s behavioral and composition characteristics (group size, mask compliance, testing, meeting time, and break times), that inform indoor policies to achieve disease control in closed environments through different pathways. Our results emphasize the impact of break times, mask-wearing, and testing on facilitating the conditions to achieve disease control. We study scenarios of different break times, mask compliance, and testing. We also derive policy guidelines to contain the infection rate under a certain threshold.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Althouse BM;Wenger EA;Miller JC;Scarpino SV;Allard A;Hébert-Dufresne L;Hu H
通讯作者：
Hu H
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2123355119
发表时间：
2022-06-28
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
通讯作者：
--
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2116165119
发表时间：
2022-05-31
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Qian, Hua;Miao, Te;Li, Yuguo
通讯作者：
Li, Yuguo
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Curtius, J.;Granzin, M.;Schrod, J.
通讯作者：
Schrod, J.