Understanding the coevolution of mask wearing and epidemics: A network perspective.
Understanding the coevolution of mask wearing and epidemics: A network perspective.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2123355119
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发表时间：
2022-06-28
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
戴口罩等非药物干预措施在降低疾病流行率方面发挥着关键作用。在戴口罩和疾病的决斗动态下，我们观察到发病率（即，曾经感染过的人群的比例）和疾病的传播概率。具体地说，攻击率表现出一个突然减少的传输概率增加到一个临界阈值。此外，我们的特点制度的传播概率的多波感染和口罩采用的预期。我们的研究结果强调了继续公共戴口罩的必要性，以抑制疫情并有效防止其死灰复燃。戴口罩等非药物干预措施可有效缓解传染病的传播。因此，了解NPI的行为动力学对于描述疾病传播的动力学至关重要。然而，标准的感染模型往往只关注疾病状态，忽视了“有益传染”的动态，例如，遵守NPI。在这项工作中，我们调查的并发传播疾病和戴口罩的行为在多路网络。我们提出的框架抓住了竞争性传染过程之间的竞争和互补关系。此外，该模型考虑了影响口罩佩戴的各种行为机制，例如同伴压力和对感染的恐惧。我们的研究结果表明，在耦合的疾病-行为动力学，疾病的发病率-作为转移概率的函数-表现出临界转变。具体地，当传输概率超过临界阈值时，由于持续的面罩佩戴响应，攻击率突然降低。我们经验探索的关键转变的原因，并证明所观察到的现象的鲁棒性。我们的研究结果强调，如果不适当地执行NPI，通过其他干预措施减少疾病传播概率可能不足以减少最终的流行规模。
Nonpharmaceutical interventions such as mask wearing play a critical role in reducing disease prevalence. Under the dueling dynamics of mask wearing and disease, we observe a robust nonmonotonic relationship between the attack rate (i.e., the fraction of the ever-infected population) and the transmission probability of the disease. Specifically, the attack rate exhibits an abrupt reduction as the transmission probability increases to a critical threshold. Furthermore, we characterize regimes of the transmission probability where multiple waves of infection and mask adoption are expected. Our results highlight the necessity of continued public mask-wearing mandates to suppress the epidemic and effectively prevent its revival. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing can be effective in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, understanding the behavioral dynamics of NPIs is critical for characterizing the dynamics of disease spread. Nevertheless, standard infection models tend to focus only on disease states, overlooking the dynamics of “beneficial contagions,” e.g., compliance with NPIs. In this work, we investigate the concurrent spread of disease and mask-wearing behavior over multiplex networks. Our proposed framework captures both the competing and complementary relationships between the dueling contagion processes. Further, the model accounts for various behavioral mechanisms that influence mask wearing, such as peer pressure and fear of infection. Our results reveal that under the coupled disease–behavior dynamics, the attack rate of a disease—as a function of transition probability—exhibits a critical transition. Specifically, as the transmission probability exceeds a critical threshold, the attack rate decreases abruptly due to sustained mask-wearing responses. We empirically explore the causes of the critical transition and demonstrate the robustness of the observed phenomena. Our results highlight that without proper enforcement of NPIs, reductions in the disease transmission probability via other interventions may not be sufficient to reduce the final epidemic size.
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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