Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number.
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010839
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发表时间：
2023-04
影响因子：
3.8
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中科院分区：
文献类型：
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对于病媒传播的疾病，衡量疾病流行潜力的基本繁殖数高度依赖于温度。最近的研究表明，这些温度依赖性突出了气候变化可能如何影响地理疾病传播。我们通过研究新出现的疾病，如寨卡病毒，将如何受到巴西四个不同地区特定的未来气候变化情景的影响来扩展这项先前的工作，巴西是一个深受寨卡病毒影响的国家。我们估计了a，来自房室传播模型，将寨卡病毒（以及登革热）传播潜力描述为埃及伊蚊特有的温度依赖性生物参数的函数。我们获得了2015-2019年五年期的历史温度数据和2045-2049年的预测，方法是将三次样条插值拟合到CMIP-6项目提供的模拟大气数据中的数据（具体来说，由GFDL-ESM 4模型生成），该模型提供了四个共享社会经济路径（SSP）下的预测。这四种SSP情景对应于不同程度的气候变化严重程度。我们将这种方法应用于代表不同气候区域的四个巴西城市（马瑙斯，累西腓，里约热内卢和圣保罗）。我们的模型预测，寨卡病毒在30°C左右达到峰值2.7，而登革热在31°C左右达到峰值6.8。我们发现，在所有气候情景下，寨卡的流行潜力将超过巴西目前的水平。对于马瑙斯，我们预测年度范围将从2.1-2.5增加到2.3-2.7，对于累西腓，我们预测从0.4-1.9增加到0.6-2.3，对于里约热内卢从0-1.9增加到0-2.3，对于圣保罗从0-0.3增加到0-0.7。随着寨卡病毒免疫力减弱和气温升高，流行潜力将增加，传播季节将延长，特别是在目前传播率很低的地区。应实施和维持监测系统，以便及早发现。气候变化导致的气温上升预计会增加虫媒病毒疾病的压力，因此了解气候变化对寨卡等新出现疾病的影响对于为未来的爆发做好准备至关重要。然而，由于在非常高的温度下疾病传播可能不那么有效，因此不确定不同地区的风险是否会均匀增加。鉴于温度与许多重要的生物媒介性状之间的非线性关系，数学建模是预测温度对虫媒病毒风险影响的有用工具。我们使用一个温度依赖的传染病传播模型，推导出一个温度依赖的基本再生数。然后，我们使用历史温度数据和2045-2049年的温度预测来预测巴西四个城市在各种气候变化情景下的寨卡风险。我们预测虫媒病毒的风险将总体增加，目前不适合全年传播的城市（如里约热内卢）的风险季节也将延长。我们还发现，即使在马瑙斯这样温暖的气候中，温度升高也几乎没有保护作用。我们的研究结果表明，应对未来寨卡疫情（以及包括登革热在内的其他虫媒病毒疫情）的准备工作应包括实施国家疾病监测和早期检测系统。
For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number , a measure of a disease’s epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a , derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data for the five-year period 2015–2019 and projections for 2045–2049 by fitting cubic spline interpolations to data from simulated atmospheric data provided by the CMIP-6 project (specifically, generated by the GFDL-ESM4 model), which provides projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These four SSP scenarios correspond to varying levels of climate change severity. We applied this approach to four Brazilian cities (Manaus, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo) that represent diverse climatic regions. Our model predicts that the for Zika peaks at 2.7 around 30°C, while for dengue it peaks at 6.8 around 31°C. We find that the epidemic potential of Zika will increase beyond current levels in Brazil in all of the climate scenarios. For Manaus, we predict that the annual range will increase from 2.1–2.5, to 2.3–2.7, for Recife we project an increase from 0.4–1.9 to 0.6–2.3, for Rio de Janeiro from 0–1.9 to 0–2.3, and for São Paulo from 0–0.3 to 0–0.7. As Zika immunity wanes and temperatures increase, there will be increasing epidemic potential and longer transmission seasons, especially in regions where transmission is currently marginal. Surveillance systems should be implemented and sustained for early detection. Rising temperatures through climate change are expected to increase arboviral disease pressure, so understanding the impact of climate change on newly emerging diseases such as Zika is essential to prepare for future outbreaks. However, because disease transmission may be less effective at very high temperatures, it is uncertain whether risk will uniformly increase in different regions. Given the nonlinear relationship between temperature and many important biological vector traits, mathematical modeling is a useful tool for predicting the impact of temperature on arbovirus risk. We used a temperature-dependent infectious disease transmission model to derive a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number. We then used historical temperature data and temperature projections for the years 2045–2049 to forecast Zika risk in four cities in Brazil under various climate change scenarios. We predict an overall increase in arbovirus risk, as well as extended risk seasons in cities that are not currently suitable for year-round spread, such as Rio de Janeiro. We also found little-to-no protective effect of increasing temperatures even in warmer climates like Manaus. Our results indicate that preparation for future Zika outbreaks (and of those of other arboviruses including dengue) should include the implementation of national disease surveillance and early detection systems.
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DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6612a4
发表时间：
2017-03-31
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ikejezie J;Shapiro CN;Kim J;Chiu M;Almiron M;Ugarte C;Espinal MA;Aldighieri S
通讯作者：
Aldighieri S
虫媒病毒载体埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊过去和未来的传播
影响因子：
28.3
作者：
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.;Reiner, Robert C., Jr.;Golding, Nick
通讯作者：
Golding, Nick
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Ebi, Kristie L.;Nealon, Joshua
通讯作者：
Nealon, Joshua
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0770
发表时间：
2012-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Dick, Olivia Brathwaite;San Martin, Jose L.;Dayan, Gustavo H.
通讯作者：
Dayan, Gustavo H.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
CROVELLO, TJ;HACKER, CS
通讯作者：
HACKER, CS