Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle.
Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle.
复制标题
COVID-19政策对交通系统的时滞效应：纽约市和西雅图的比较研究。
DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2021.01.019
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Wang, Jingxing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bian, Zilin;Zuo, Fan;Gao, Jingqin;Chen, Yanyan;Venkata, Sai Sarath Chandra Pavuluri;Bernardes, Suzana Duran;Ozbay, Kaan;Ban, Xuegang (Jeff);Wang, Jingxing
新型冠状病毒疫情带来前所未有的挑战，需要及时采取行动。然而，由于政策制定的复杂性，在认识到问题的时间和政策对系统产生影响的时间之间可能存在滞后。为了理解这种滞后并加快决策，本研究提出了一个变点检测框架，使用似然比，回归结构和贝叶斯变点检测方法。其目的是量化当局采取行动应对COVID-19疫情时交通系统所反映的时滞效应。使用出行模式作为政策有效性的指标，通过对纽约市（NYC）和西雅图这两个受COVID-19影响严重的美国城市的案例研究，研究了政策滞后的时间长度和政策对道路系统、公共交通和微型交通的影响程度。定量研究结果表明，国家宣布紧急状态没有政策滞后，而留在家里和重新开放的政策有一个领先的流动性的影响。影响的程度在很大程度上取决于该地区的土地使用和社会人口特征，以及运输系统的类型。
The unprecedented challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic demand timely action. However, due to the complex nature of policy making, a lag may exist between the time a problem is recognized and the time a policy has its impact on a system. To understand this lag and to expedite decision making, this study proposes a change point detection framework using likelihood ratio, regression structure and a Bayesian change point detection method. The objective is to quantify the time lag effect reflected in transportation systems when authorities take action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using travel patterns as an indicator of policy effectiveness, the length of policy lag and magnitude of policy impacts on the road system, mass transit, and micromobility are investigated through the case studies of New York City (NYC), and Seattle—two U.S. cities significantly affected by COVID-19. The quantitative findings show that the National declaration of emergency had no policy lag while stay-at-home and reopening policies had a lead effect on mobility. The magnitude of impact largely depended on the land use and sociodemographic characteristics of the area, as well as the type of transportation system.
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DOI：
10.1177/0033354920976575
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Abouk R;Heydari B
通讯作者：
Heydari B
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
SCOTT, AJ;KNOTT, M
通讯作者：
KNOTT, M
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Gruen, D;Romalis, J;Chandra, N
通讯作者：
Chandra, N
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
AUGER, IE;LAWRENCE, CE
通讯作者：
LAWRENCE, CE
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Eubank, S.;Eckstrand, I;Barrett, C. L.
通讯作者：
Barrett, C. L.