Trade as a confidence-building measure in protracted conflicts: the cases of Georgia and Moldova compared
Trade as a confidence-building measure in protracted conflicts: the cases of Georgia and Moldova compared
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贸易作为旷日持久冲突中建立信任的措施：格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦的案例比较
DOI：
10.1080/15387216.2019.1702567
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Kemoklidze N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kemoklidze N
关于后苏联地区旷日持久的冲突的学术和政策文献经常假设贸易是一种有效的建立信任措施，因此也有可能促进冲突解决的进展。我们通过详细的实证比较，在阿布哈兹，南奥塞梯和德涅斯特河左岸的情况下，受管制和不受管制的贸易形式的影响，探讨这些断言。根据大量的主要和次要来源，包括29次半结构化访谈，以及直接和参与性观察，我们发现，由于当地当局及其各自的国际伙伴缺乏政治意愿，贸易基本上仍然不受管制，建立信任和稳定的作用有限，而且一般不可持续，阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯的情况就是证明。在地方和地缘政治条件较为有利的地方，贸易受到更多的管制，大大有助于建立信任和稳定，并对建立信任的非经济领域产生一些积极的溢出效应，德涅斯特河左岸就是明显的例子。这一发现可能对其他情况产生重要影响，在这些情况下，政府和相关的区域和国际行为体面临是否以及如何与未被承认的实体进行接触的困难选择，例如在乌克兰。
Academic and policy literature on the post-Soviet region’s protracted conflicts frequently assumes that trade is an effective confidence-building measure (CBM) and as such also has the potential to facilitate progress toward conflict settlement. We probe these assertions through a detailed empirical comparison of the effects that regulated and unregulated forms of trade have had in the cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria. Relying on a wealth of primary and secondary sources, including 29 semi-structured interviews, as well as direct and participant observation, we find that, absent political will by authorities on the ground and their respective international partners, trade remains by-and-large unregulated and has limited and generally not sustainable confidence-building and stabilizing effects, as evidenced by the cases of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Where local and geopolitical conditions are more conducive, trade becomes more regulated and significantly contributes to confidence building and stabilization and has some positive spill-over effects into non-economic areas of confidence building, as is evident from Transnistria. This finding has potentially important implications for other cases in which governments and relevant regional and international actors are faced with difficult choices over whether and how to engage with unrecognized entities, such as in Ukraine.
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影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Barbieri, K;Levy, JS
通讯作者：
Levy, JS
UvA-DARE（数字学术知识库）欧洲化、主权和争议国家：塞浦路斯北部的欧盟和
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dimitris Bouris;George Kyris
通讯作者：
George Kyris
简介：与事实上的国家交往的概念框架
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
James Ker;Eiki Berg
通讯作者：
Eiki Berg
州内安全困境：种族冲突是一场“悲剧”？
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
P. Roe
通讯作者：
P. Roe
战争或投降的替代方案
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1963
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. H. Hodgson;C. Osgood
通讯作者：
C. Osgood