Assessing the Health and Economic Impact of a Potential Menthol Cigarette Ban in New York City: a Modeling Study.
Assessing the Health and Economic Impact of a Potential Menthol Cigarette Ban in New York City: a Modeling Study.
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评估纽约市潜在薄荷香烟禁令对健康和经济的影响：一项建模研究。
DOI：
10.1007/s11524-021-00581-8
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chambers EC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Y;Sisti J;Flórez KR;Albrecht SS;Viswanath A;Davila M;Cantrell J;Brahmbhatt D;Thompson AB;Jasek J;Chambers EC
香烟中的薄荷会增加尼古丁依赖性，降低成功戒烟的机会。在纽约市（NYC），近一半的吸烟者通常吸食薄荷醇香烟。与男性和其他种族相比，女性和非拉丁裔黑人更有可能吸食薄荷味香烟。尽管美国食品和药物管理局最近宣布将禁止薄荷香烟，但目前尚不清楚该政策将如何影响纽约市的人口健康和健康差异。为了告知潜在的政策制定，我们使用了心血管疾病（CVD）的微观模拟模型来预测纽约市潜在的薄荷醇禁令对健康和经济的长期影响。我们的模型预测，在没有薄荷醇禁令政策的20年期间，纽约市每100万成年吸烟者可能有57，232（95%CI：51，967 - 62，497）例心肌梗死（MI）病例和52，195（95%CI：47，446 - 56，945）例中风病例。通过薄荷醇禁令政策，每100万成年人中有2，862例MI病例和1，983例中风病例可以在20年内避免。该模型还预测，由于实施薄荷醇禁令政策，在20年内，人均医疗保健费用可节省1，836美元，即所有成年吸烟者可节省16.2亿美元。亚组分析的结果表明，与男性和其他种族和民族亚组相比，女性，特别是黑人女性，可能实施薄荷醇禁令政策会使不良心血管疾病结局减少更多，这意味着该政策可以减少性别和种族和民族心血管疾病差异。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了证据，以支持限制获得薄荷醇香烟的政策，并可能解决吸烟相关疾病负担中的种族和民族差异。
Menthol in cigarettes increases nicotine dependence and decreases the chances of successful smoking cessation. In New York City (NYC), nearly half of current smokers usually smoke menthol cigarettes. Female and non-Latino Black individuals were more likely to smoke menthol-flavored cigarettes compared to males and other races and ethnicities. Although the US Food and Drug Administration recently announced that it will ban menthol cigarettes, it is unclear how the policy would affect population health and health disparities in NYC. To inform potential policymaking, we used a microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to project the long-term health and economic impact of a potential menthol ban in NYC. Our model projected that there could be 57,232 (95% CI: 51,967–62,497) myocardial infarction (MI) cases and 52,195 (95% CI: 47,446–56,945) stroke cases per 1 million adult smokers in NYC over a 20-year period without the menthol ban policy. With the menthol ban policy, 2,862 MI cases and 1,983 stroke cases per 1 million adults could be averted over a 20-year period. The model also projected that an average of $1,836 in healthcare costs per person, or $1.62 billion among all adult smokers, could be saved over a 20-year period due to the implementation of a menthol ban policy. Results from subgroup analyses showed that women, particularly Black women, would have more reductions in adverse CVD outcomes from the potential implementation of the menthol ban policy compared to males and other racial and ethnic subgroups, which implies that the policy could reduce sex and racial and ethnic CVD disparities. Findings from our study provide policymakers with evidence to support policies that limit access to menthol cigarettes and potentially address racial and ethnic disparities in smoking-related disease burden.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Anderson, Stacey J.
通讯作者：
Anderson, Stacey J.
DOI：
10.1007/s11524-018-0287-x
发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Kanchi, Rania;Perlman, Sharon E.;Thorpe, Lorna E.
通讯作者：
Thorpe, Lorna E.
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Gardiner, PS
通讯作者：
Gardiner, PS
影响因子：
33.9
作者：
Henley, S. Jane;Thomas, Cheryll C.;Richardson, Lisa C.
通讯作者：
Richardson, Lisa C.
影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Arnett, Donna K.;Blumenthal, Roger S.;Ziaeian, Boback
通讯作者：
Ziaeian, Boback