Time Matters: Adapting to Transformation
Time Matters: Adapting to Transformation
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时间很重要：适应转型
DOI：
10.1080/13523270701840480
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Rose R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rose R
政治制度的转变是一个压缩在短时间内的事件：与西欧民主化的漫长过程相比，苏联的解体发生得非常突然。相比之下，适应转型的后果可能是一个漫长的过程。主体需要时间来了解新政权的优点和弱点，也需要时间来忘掉旧政权中被视为理所当然的事情。但这并不需要几代人的时间。中欧和东欧共产主义政权的前臣民，包括三个前苏联加盟共和国，已经适应了欧盟内部民主政府制度的生活。 1945 年之后的十五年里，融入希特勒第三帝国社会的德国人已经学会了适应联邦共和国的民主制度，而他们的父母必须更快地学会适应纳粹政权。我们现在距离苏联体制的转型也有同样长的时间。俄罗斯人如何以及为何适应政治转型？与成熟民主国家政治领导层的更迭不同，克里姆林宫从米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫到鲍里斯·叶利钦和弗拉基米尔·普京的更迭是政治、经济和社会普遍三重转型的一部分。即使俄罗斯人选择忽略来自莫斯科的新闻，他或她也无法忽视它对日常生活的许多方面（从工作到购物和看电视）造成的后果。苏联解体后，俄罗斯人不得不改变自己的行为，否则就有可能在转型后的社会中被边缘化。为了巩固对其权威的支持，新政权的领导人，无论是民主政权还是独裁政权，都希望其臣民通过支持或至少接受他们所提供的政治制度来适应。 2 在任何一年中，差异都可能是由社会结构、经济环境或政治态度的个体差异或三者的结合造成的。然而，由于历史和国家背景都很重要，无法通过在单个时间点检验理性选择或其他支持该政权的理论来了解民众对新政权反应的动态。 3 需要有关公众舆论的经验证据来了解在新政权启动后关键的最初几年中民众态度如何发展。这项研究解释了随着俄罗斯人学会适应转型的后果，对新俄罗斯联邦政权的支持是如何发展的。它利用了独特的证据来源，即公共政策研究中心在 1992 年 1 月至 2005 年 1 月期间进行的 14 次全国性新俄罗斯晴雨表 (NRB) 抽样调查，平均有不到 2,000 名受访者（见表 1）。由于新俄罗斯晴雨表十多年来不断重复同样的问题，它可以测试俄罗斯人如何调整他们的经济、政治和社会态度
The transformation of a political system is an event compressed into a short span of time: by comparison with the longue durée that led to democratization in Western Europe, the break-up of the Soviet Union occurred very abruptly. By contrast, adapting to the consequences of transformation can be a lengthy process. It takes time for subjects to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new regime and time to unlearn much that was taken for granted in the old regime. Yet it need not take generations. Former subjects of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, including three former Soviet republics, have adapted to living under a democratic system of government within the European Union. Within a decade and a half after 1945 Germans socialized into Hitler’s Third Reich had learned to adapt to the democratic institutions of the Federal Republic–and their parents had to learn even more quickly to adapt to the Nazi regime. We are now a similar length of time from the transformation of the Soviet system. How and why have Russians adapted to political transformation? Unlike changes in political leadership in established democracies, changes in the Kremlin from Mikhail Gorbachev to Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin have been part of a pervasive triple transformation of polity, economy and society. Even if a Russian chose to ignore news from Moscow, he or she could not ignore its consequences in many aspects of everyday life from working to shopping and viewing television. In the time that has passed since the Soviet Union disappeared, Russians have had to alter their behaviour or risk becoming marginalized in a post-transformation society. In order to consolidate support for their authority, the leaders of a new regime, whether democratic or autocratic, want its subjects to adapt by giving support, or at least resigned acceptance, to the political system that they supply. 2 In any one year, variations may be accounted for by individual differences in social structure, economic circumstances or political attitudes, or by a combination of all three. However, an understanding of the dynamics of popular response to a new regime cannot be gained by testing rational choice or other theories of support for the regime at a single point in time, for both historical and national contexts matter. 3 Empirical evidence about public opinion is required for how popular attitudes develop during the critical early years from the launch of a new regime. This study explains how support for the new Russian Federation regime has developed as Russians have learned to adapt to the consequences of transformation. It does so by drawing on a unique source of evidence, 14 nationwide New Russia Barometer (NRB) sample surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Public Policy from January 1992 to January 2005 with an average of just under 2,000 respondents (see Table 1). Because the New Russia Barometer repeats the same questions over more than a decade, it can test how Russians adapt their economic, political and social attitudes
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DOI：
10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00006
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
The Journal of Politics
影响因子：
--
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影响因子：
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作者：
R. Rose
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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