US benefit-cost analysis requires revision
US benefit-cost analysis requires revision
复制标题
美国效益成本分析需要修订
DOI：
10.1126/science.adi5943
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Howard P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Howard P
效益-成本分析应以现有的最佳数据和方法为指导。然而，在评估法规时，美国机构目前使用过时的方法和数据来评估未来的影响，以确定贴现率。修订被称为通告A-4的文件的建议将通过现代化贴现指导(1)来解决这一缺陷，这将大大改善美国的监管分析。A-94号通知也已起草了相应的更新，这将改进美国联邦公共投资分析(2)。社会贴现率用于效益成本分析，将发生在不同时间的影响转化为可比较的现值。2003年编写的美国监管指导文件通告a -4(3)指示各机构在大多数情况下使用3%和7%的贴现率。3%的利率反映了当时估计的无风险利率，即社会对未来消费的贴现利率。7%的利率反映了当时预期的市场资本回报率。这些利率很重要。例如，一项假设的监管可能在今天花费200亿美元，在30年后产生1000亿美元的未贴现收益。按照7%的贴现率计算，这1000亿美元相当于今天的130亿美元。监管机构将200亿美元的投资与130亿美元的收益进行比较，发现净亏损为70亿美元。如果采用3%的利率，同样的200亿美元投资，在30年后产生同样的1,000亿美元，预计将提供相当于今天410亿美元的收益，净收益为210亿美元。因此，贴现率较低
Benefit-cost analysis should be guided by the best available data and methods. Yet when assessing regulations, US agencies currently value future impacts using outdated methods and data to determine discount rates. A proposal to revise a document known as Circular A-4 would address this deficiency by modernizing discounting guidance (1), which would substantially improve US regulatory analysis. A corresponding update has also been drafted for Circular A-94, which will improve US federal public investment analysis (2). A social discount rate is used in benefitcost analysis to translate impacts that occur at different times into comparable present values. Circular A-4, a US regulatory guidance document written in 2003 (3), directs agencies to use discount rates of 3% and 7% in most contexts. The 3% rate reflects the then-estimated risk-free rate at which society discounts consumption in the future. The 7% rate reflects the then-anticipated market rate of return to capital. These rates matter. For example, a hypothetical regulation might cost $20 billion today and yield $100 billion in undiscounted benefits in 30 years. Using the 7% discount rate, that $100 billion would be equivalent to $13 billion today. Regulators would compare the $20 billion investment with the $13 billion benefit and find a net loss of $7 billion. If a 3% rate is used instead, the same $20 billion investment, yielding the same $100 billion in 30 years, would be predicted to provide benefits equivalent to $41 billion today, a net gain of $21 billion. A lower discount rate thus
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
R. Lester;Lily L. Tsai;S. Berger;Peter Fisher;M. T. Fravel;David B. Goldston;Yasheng Huang;D. Rus
通讯作者：
D. Rus
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
R. Newell;W. Pizer;Brian C. Prest
通讯作者：
Brian C. Prest