A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic.
A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2009.11.009
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Burke DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee BY;Brown ST;Cooley PC;Zimmerman RK;Wheaton WD;Zimmer SM;Grefenstette JJ;Assi TM;Furphy TJ;Wagener DK;Burke DS
确定流感大流行期间不同疫苗覆盖率、合规性、接种率、优先顺序和时间安排对员工的影响。作为传染病代理研究模型 (MIDAS) 网络 H1N1 流感规划工作的一部分，针对华盛顿特区大都市地区开发了基于代理的计算机模拟模型 (ABM)，涵盖五个大都市统计区域。每次模拟运行都涉及引入 100 名感染者来启动 1.3 繁殖率 (R0) 流行病，与迄今为止的 H1N1 参数一致。另一组情景代表 R0=1.6 的流行病。即使 H1N1 的估计死亡率影响相对较低，严重的流行病也导致了巨大的生产力损失（15% 血清学发病率平均损失 1.126 亿美元，25% 血清学发病率平均损失 1.938 亿美元）。虽然为免疫实践咨询委员会 (ACIP) 优先群体接种疫苗可以节省最大的成本，但为所有剩余工作人员接种疫苗可以节省更多成本，事实上，还减少了医护人员和关键基础设施工作人员的感染机会。虽然员工疫苗接种合规性影响了疫情，但一旦达到 20% 的合规性，合规性的额外增加所带来的增量收益就会减少。尽管 DC 都会区绝大多数工作场所的员工少于 100 名，但仅重点为大型公司（员工人数≥100 名）的员工接种疫苗与尝试为所有工作场所接种疫苗一样能有效缓解疫情。及时为大公司至少20%的员工接种疫苗可以对缓解疫情起到重要作用。
Determining the effects of varying vaccine coverage, compliance, administration rates, prioritization, and timing among employees during an influenza pandemic. As part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) network’s H1N1 influenza planning efforts, an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) was developed of the Washington, DC metropolitan region, encompassing five metropolitan statistical areas. Each simulation run involved introducing 100 infectious individuals to initiate a 1.3 reproductive rate (R0) epidemic, consistent with H1N1 parameters to date. Another set of scenarios represented a R0=1.6 epidemic. An unmitigated epidemic resulted in substantial productivity losses (a mean of $112.6 million for a serologic 15% attack rate and $193.8 million for a serologic 25% attack rate), even with the relatively low estimated mortality impact of H1N1. While vaccinating Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) priority groups resulted in the largest savings, vaccinating all remaining workers captured additional savings and, in fact, reduced healthcare workers’ and critical infrastructure workers’ chances of infection. While employee vaccination compliance affected the epidemic, once 20% compliance was achieved, additional increases in compliance provided less incremental benefit. Even though a vast majority of the workplaces in the DC Metro region had fewer than 100 employees, focusing on vaccinating only those in larger firms (≥100 employees) was just as effective in mitigating the epidemic as trying to vaccinate all workplaces. Timely vaccination of at least 20% of the large company workforce can play an important role in epidemic mitigation.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0601266103
发表时间：
2006-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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Macken, CA
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Valleron, Alain-Jacques;Ferguson, Neil M.
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DOI：
10.1016/0965-8564(96)00004-3
发表时间：
1996-11-01
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Beckman, RJ;Baggerly, KA;McKay, MD
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