Temporal patterns of suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality are inversely correlated in several countries.
Temporal patterns of suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality are inversely correlated in several countries.
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在几个国家，自杀和循环系统疾病相关死亡率的时间模式呈负相关。
DOI：
10.1186/s12888-021-03159-5
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发表时间：
2021-03-16
期刊：
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Fitzmaurice GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaufman MJ;Fitzmaurice GM
全世界每年发生近80万起自杀事件，自杀率的增长速度超过了人口增长速度。不幸的是，自杀的病理生理学仍然知之甚少，这阻碍了自杀预防工作。然而，通过研究季节性对自杀和其他死亡原因的影响，可能会发现机械的线索。自杀倾向于在春夏期间达到高峰，在秋冬期间达到最低点，而循环系统疾病相关死亡率倾向于表现出相反的时间趋势。本研究旨在首次确定在人口水平上自杀和循环系统疾病相关死亡率之间是否存在月度时间交叉相关。如果是这样的话，如果共同的生物学因素对两种死亡类型的风险都是适度的，那么这些因素可能是可接受的，并被用来改善自杀预防。我们对2009-2018年期间北方（英格兰和威尔士，韩国，美国）和南半球（澳大利亚，巴西）国家的每月死亡率数据进行了时间序列分析（N = 4180万全因死亡病例）。我们使用标准余弦模型的泊松回归变量来确定死亡率的峰值月份。我们还估计了自杀和循环系统疾病的月死亡率之间的相互关系。在澳大利亚（-0.32）、巴西（-0.57）、韩国（-0.32）和美国（-0.66），自杀和循环系统疾病相关死亡率的时间模式呈负相关，但在英格兰和威尔士没有发现时间相关性。我们在研究的5个国家中的4个国家发现，这些死亡率类型之间的负时间交叉相关性表明，季节因素在很大程度上和相反地降低了循环系统疾病相关死亡率和自杀的风险，但并非在所有地区，这表明这种影响并不均匀。由于温度和光照的季节性因素在几个国家对自杀和循环系统疾病相关死亡率产生相反的影响，我们建议，生理适应性循环系统对热和光的反应可能会增加自杀风险，应进行研究，以确定它们是否影响自杀风险。例如，热和光会增加生物活性气体一氧化氮的产生和释放，并通过放松血管张力来减少循环系统疾病，而一氧化氮水平升高与自杀行为有关，这与我们检测到的逆时间死亡率模式平行。
Nearly 800,000 suicides occur worldwide annually and suicide rates are increasing faster than population growth. Unfortunately, the pathophysiology of suicide remains poorly understood, which has hindered suicide prevention efforts. However, mechanistic clues may be found by studying effects of seasonality on suicide and other mortality causes. Suicides tend to peak in spring-summer periods and nadir in fall-winter periods while circulatory system disease-related mortality tends to exhibit the opposite temporal trends. This study aimed to determine for the first time whether monthly temporal cross-correlations exist between suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality at the population level. If so and if common biological factors moderate risks for both mortality types, such factors may be discoverable and utilized to improve suicide prevention. We conducted time series analyses of monthly mortality data from northern (England and Wales, South Korea, United States) and southern (Australia, Brazil) hemisphere countries during the period 2009–2018 (N = 41.8 million all-cause mortality cases). We used a Poisson regression variant of the standard cosinor model to determine peak months of mortality. We also estimated cross-correlations between monthly mortality counts from suicide and from circulatory system diseases. Suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality temporal patterns were negatively correlated in Australia (− 0.32), Brazil (− 0.57), South Korea (− 0.32), and in the United States (− 0.66), but no temporal correlation was discernable in England and Wales. The negative temporal cross-correlations between these mortality types we found in 4 of 5 countries studied suggest that seasonal factors broadly and inversely moderate risks for circulatory disease-related mortality and suicide, but not in all regions, indicating that the effect is not uniform. Since the seasonal factors of temperature and light exert opposite effects on suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality in several countries, we propose that physiologically-adaptive circulatory system responses to heat and light may increase risk for suicide and should be studied to determine whether they affect suicide risk. For example, heat and light increase production and release of the bioactive gas nitric oxide and reduce circulatory system disease by relaxing blood vessel tone, while elevated nitric oxide levels are associated with suicidal behavior, inverse effects that parallel the inverse temporal mortality patterns we detected.
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影响因子：
6.8
作者：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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